27th March NBA Picks
An abundance of fixtures tonight in the NBA, and here is my take on where the value lies.
Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards: Nicolas Claxton Double Double (1.83, bet365)
The Nets make the short journey over to Washington tonight, in a matchup Claxton has had success in so far. He’s recorded a Double Double in 3/3 H2H’s this season.
- 21/11/2023 – 10 Points, 13 Rebounds
- 8/12/2023 – 13 Points, 15 Rebounds
- 29/12/2023 – 11 Points, 12 Rebounds
In those three games, the Claxton has been capped at 30 minutes, too – he’s been getting over with 25+ mins consistently against the Wizards. Tonight presents an even better opportunity to continue his record, as the Wizards have since traded Gafford to the Mavericks.
This leaves the Wizards short at the 5, with Kuzma filling in a lot this season. Claxton is a small compared to other bigs in the league, but has the size advantage in the paint on this occasion, on this extremely rare occasion.
Excellent stats, matchup couldn’t be much better. Hopefully it stays close so Claxton gets his minutes. With a 3.5 spread, the books suggest it will.
Model predictions have Claxton for 11.7 points, and 10.4 rebounds.
Pick 1: Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards: Nicolas Claxton Double Double (1.83, bet365)
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Dillon Brooks O11.5 Points + Assists (1.71, bet365)
Dillon Brooks is averaging 13.6 Points + Assists across the season in isolation, making this interesting already, however, that rises to 14.8 when playing away.
Now combine that with Sengun being out, Brooks will likely see an uptick in scoring and general usage. With Sengun out this season, Brooks is over this line in 7/8.
I like points line in isolation set at 10.5, but have decided to add in the assist for the extra safety net. Brooks has managed at least 1 assist in 22/23 of the last consecutive games. He’s got a low ceiling for assists, but a fairly consistent floor. 2 assists or more would be ideal, but Brooks has cleared this line on points alone in 7/8 without Sengun.
It’s a 7-point spread, so hopefully it stays close enough for Dillon Brooks to get close to 30 minutes, and stay out of any foul trouble.
Model predictions have Dillon Brooks projected for 12.3 Points, and 1.7 Assists.
Pick 2 Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Dillon Brooks O11.5 Points + Assists (1.71, bet365)
