30th March Premier League Preview: Tottenham vs Luton Town

A massive game at either end of the table, with Spurs vying for a European spot next season, and Luton barely above the relegation zone, following a points deduction for Forest. Rob Edwards has got the Hatters playing a brace style of football – massive credit to him, and that should lead to an exciting contest in London.

Pick 1: Richarlison AGS / Richarlison 2+ SoT

Pick 2: Teden Mengi 1+ Foul

Luton Town 0-1 Tottenham: Micky van de Ven scores as 10-man Spurs beat Hatters to move top of Premier League - Eurosport

Players Out

Tottenham: Sessegnon, Forster, Solomon, Van de Ven (50%)

Luton Town: Lockyer, Bell, Nakamba, Adebayo, Potts, Johnson, Osho, Jacob Brown, Mads Andersen, Lokonga (25%), Doughty (50%), Mpanzu (50%), Ogbene (50%)

Predicted Lineups:

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Vicario, Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie, Sarr, Bentancur, Kulusevski, Maddison, Son, Richarlison

Luton Town (3-4-3): Kaminski, Hashioka, Mengi, Burke, Kabore, Barkley, Clark, Doughty, Chong, Townsend, Morris

Pick 1: Richarlison AGS (1.9, bet365) / Richarlison 2+ SoT (1.84, Unibet)

First Pick, I’m backing Richarlison to find chances in front of goal, and have two accompanying bets from this research.

The Brazilian has found the back of the net 10 times already this season, including 5 times in front of a home crowd. Despite not featuring for Brazil in the recent international break, I expect him to lead the line on Saturday. Note that if he doesn’t start, these bets will void.

I really fancy Tottenham though, and the market does too – Spurs are as short as 1.2 for victory here, backable only with a 2 goal handicap.

Rob Edwards confirmed yet more bad news for the Hatters, with no players returning from injury, but Ogbene joins an ever-growing list of absentees, taking the total number of casualties to 13 – the longest injury report in the league at the moment. That includes defensive injuries to the likes of Lockyer, Osho, Amari’i Bell and Mads Andersen – it’s a makeshift backline travelling to London, expected again to go man-to-man defensively.

That spells problems, and it makes opposition attacking players a target. Recent forwards against Luton have put up notable stats:

Chris Wood – 1 shot, 1 SoT, 1 goal
Solanke – 3 shots, 1 SoT, 1 goal
Mateta – 4 shots, 2 SoT, 1 goal
Watkins – 5 shots, 4 SoT, 2 goals
Haaland – 7 shots, 7 SoT, 5 goals
Gakpo – 8 shots, 4 SoT, 1 goal
Hojlund – 3 shots, 3 SoT, 1 goal
Archer – 2 goals, 1 SoT, 1 goal

The last 8 consecutive strikers have bagged against the Hatters, which bodes extremely well. Richarlison is priced best with bet365 to score on Saturday.

Bet 1: Richarlison Anytime Goalscorer (1.9, bet365)

The efficiency of Richarlison is difficult to predict, however, based off the data, he should certainly find chances. Luton have been far from watertight defensively, leaking chances not only ample chances to opponents, but good chances, too. Richarlison is best priced with Unibet for Shots on Target.

Bet 2: Richarlison 2+ Shots on Target (1.84, Unibet)

Pick 2: Teden Mengi 1+ Foul (1.72, PaddyPower)

Teden Mengi is one of the few players excluded from the injury report, and I really like the value on offer here from PaddyPower For context, this same selection is priced at 1.28 on Sky.

Mengi is currently averaging the 3rd-most fouls in the Luton lineup, only behind Kabore and Carlton Morris, with 1.21 fouls / 90. That includes a foul in 11/13 away games in all comps this season.

Although Mengi didn’t start in the reverse fixture against Spurs, he replaced Mads Andersen in the 60th minute, and made 1 foul.

Spurs are currently drawing the most fouls in the entire league this season, 13.7 per game, so I fancy a few fouls for Luton on Saturday – hopefully Mengi gets stuck in!