31st March NBA Picks

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Coming down to the business end of the season, with (most) teams gearing up for the playoffs, and a lot of action to get stuck into.

Picks for Tonight: 

• OKC Thunder @ NY Knicks: Miles McBride O21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (1.76, bet365)
• GS Warriors @ SA Spurs: Steph Curry O25.5 Points (1.76, bet365)

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OKC Thunder @ NY Knicks

Miles McBride O21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (1.76, bet365)

Trusting this man again, as his minutes have skyrocketed towards the end of the regular season. He draws a nice matchup here, with OKC strong on the interior, but giving up shooting opportunities on the perimeter that McBride can exploit.

Since adopting a new starting role, McBride has put up:

• 32 PRA (47 mins) vs Warriors
• 17 PRA (44 mins) vs Nuggets
• 31 PRA (48 mins) vs Nets
• 22 PRA (43 mins) vs Pistons
• 39 PRA (40 mins) vs Raptors
• 12 PRA (46 mins) vs Spurs

Quite inconsistent numbers, but in he’s cleared in 4/6 overall. Against Spurs, we saw Brunson score his highest ever points tally of 61 – he was the focus that game, so saw the vast majority of the ball. Similarly, against the Pistons DiVincenzo put up 11 3’s, reducing the shooting volume of McBride.

This is purely a minutes play, on a line I believe to be too low off the back of poor efficiency and reduced volume against the Spurs.

Model predictions have McBride in for 23.4 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Miles McBride O21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (1.76, bet365)

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GS Warriors @ SA Spurs

Steph Curry O25.5 Points (1.76, bet365)

Steph Curry has seen a bit of a slump recently in points, averaging just 22.6 points over the last 5 compared to 26.5 for the season. However, there hasn’t been a noticeable drop in volume, it’s been mostly poor efficiency. Because of that, he’s bound to regress closer to his mean at some point, and I really fancy him in this matchup.

We’ve seen teams avoid the paint against Wembanyama, he is too long, able to rack up blocks at ease. It will be Curry’s ability to score beyond the arc which could pay dividends, and has done so far this season, when he scored 35 points – making seven 3’s on fourteen attempts!

Klay Thompson and Kuminga are Q tags for this one too. If either of them are to miss, it would give Curry an uptick in shooting volume and usage to aid this selection. Although, even with them in, I really like this pick.

Model predictions have Steph Curry in for 26.2 Points.

Steph Curry O25.5 Points (1.76, bet365)