31st March Premier League Preview: Liverpool vs Brighton

Klopp is yet to beat De Zerbi’s Brighton, although the Seagulls come into this fixture a shadow of their former selves, in relatively poor form. The Reds are the heavy favourites, so can they live up to the expectation?

Pick 1: Liverpool O18.5 Shots (1.83, bet365)

Pick 2: Wataru Endo 2+ Fouls (1.73, SkyBet)

Pick 3: Liverpool O16.5 Tackles + MacAllister 1+ Shot (1.8, bet365)

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion preview, team news, tickets & prediction

Players Out:

Liverpool: Matip, Allison, Bajcetic, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jota, Thiago, Robertson (50%), Curtis Jones (50%)

Brighton: Solly March, Mitoma, Hinshelwood, Milner (25%), Joao Pedro (50%)

Predicted Lineups:

Liverpool (4-3-3): Kelleher, Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Gomez, Endo, Szoboszlai, MacAllister, Salah, Nunez, Diaz

Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen, Lamptey, Van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan, Gross, Gilmour, Adingra, Lallana, Fati, Welbeck

Pick 1: Liverpool O18.5 Shots

Liverpool have been formidable at home this season, with 20 wins and 3 draws in their 23 games in all comps this season.

It’s a relatively surprising line – although Brighton are conceding just 13 shots per game on average away from home this season, Liverpool have been putting up some notable shot counts at Anfield.

That includes 19 against Man City, 28 against Chelsea, 34 against Newcastle. Excluding the game against Arsenal, Liverpool have had at least 17 shots in every game at Anfield this season, and have cleared 19 shots in 19/23 games.

Liverpool have had a fair share of injury woes this season (and still do), but to a much lesser extent than last month. Salah is back, as is Nunez, Szoboszlai and Konate. It’s a very strong Liverpool side, at an important stage of the season – I’m expecting a strong atmosphere and a positive performance. Regardless of the gamestate, I really like Liverpool for shots on Sunday.

Bet 1: Liverpool O18.5 Shots (1.83, bet365)

Pick 2: Wataru Endo 2+ Fouls

Wataru Endo has been a sensation for the Reds this season, and has massively exceeded the expectations of his £16.2 million price tag in the summer.

The Japanese international is expected to slot back into his DM role on the weekend, and I’m a fan of his price for 2+ fouls which is normally closer to 1.5.

When playing at home this season, Endo is averaging 3.09 fouls per 90 – by far the away the most in the squad. That includes 2+ fouls in 7/9.

He made exactly 1 foul in the two most recent games against Man City and Luton, but Brighton present an excellent opportunity to back opposition fouls. The Seagulls are drawing the 4th-most fouls in the league this season.

Endo hasn’t faced Brighton, but MacAllister made 3 fouls as the DM against Brighton earlier in October this season.

Bet 2: Wataru Endo 2+ Fouls (1.73, SkyBet)

Pick 3: Liverpool O16.5 Tackles + MacAllister 1+ Shot

Diving into a Bet Builder for the final selection here, with two more selections I perceive to hold value.

In addition to monster shot counts as home, Liverpool have also been playing with improved aggression in front of a home crowd, with tackle counts of 23, 21, 23, 23 in the last four games.

Brighton are drawing on average 18 tackles / game from opponents across the season, and Liverpool made 22 tackles in the reverse H2H in October.

It’s a big occasion for Alexis MacAllister, who faces his former employers for the second time. He managed just a single shot in the reverse H2H, but that was from a much deeper role.

Since Endo returned from the Asia Cup, MacAllister has played as the number 8 in seven games, and had a shot in 6/7. Since joining from the Seagulls the Argentinian has had a shot in 8/11 home games, averaging 1.51 / 90.

A combination of these two stats yields odds just short of evens, a price I’m happy to take.