10th April Champions League Preview: PSG vs Barcelona
Cast your mind back to 2017, Sergi Roberto makes it 6-1 to send Luis Enrique’s Barcleona through to the quarter-finals in the Champions League. He now finds himself at the realms of a Parisian side looking to life the UCL trophy for the first time.
Pick 1: Mbappe 4+ Shots (1.74, Unibet)
Pick 2: Mbappe 2+ Shots on Target (1.95, Unibet)
Pick 3: Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer (1.95, bet365)
Predicted Lineups:
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma, Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Skriniar, Nuno Mendes, Kang-In Lee, Ugarte, Vitinha, Dembele, Goncalo Ramos, Mbappe
Barcelona (4-3-3): Ter Stegen, Kounde, Cubarsi, Araujo, Cancelo, De Jong, Gundogan, Fermin Lopez, Lamine Yamal, Lewandowski, Raphinha
Pick 1: Mbappe 4+ Shots
It appears to be the final season for Kylian Mbappe in Paris, as the Frenchman seems set to link up with Real Madrid next season. I’ve gone for a 2.5 unit spread on this man today – all the eggs in one basket.
He’s turned up the intensity this season too, and seems more motivated that ever to deliver the first UCL trophy back to Paris. Mbappe currently is sitting on 39 goals, and is on track to have his most successful goalscoring season since 19/20.
He’s currently averaging 4.7 shots / 90 in the league, which is also his highest average shots per game since 19/20, when he was taking a mammoth 5.2 shots / 90.
At home this season, Mbappe is averaging 4.9 shots / 90, racking up 4+ shots in 14/16 when completing the full 90 minutes, which I imagine he does on Wednesday night.
Although the majority of opponents are in Ligue 1, against a player like Mbappe, is the matchup really relevant? He’s arguably the best attacking player in world football, and big games like this are only more likely to bring out the best in him.
Mbappe has hit 4+ shots in all every UCL game at home so far this season:
- 5 shots vs Dortmund
- 4 shots vs Newcastle
- 5 shots vs AC Milan
- 7 shots vs Real Sociedad
Opportunity for PSG to gain an advantage in front of a home crowd, against an injury-stricken Barcelona side who appear to be quite short in both midfield and defence. Expect PSG to come out firing, and Mbappe to be involved.
Bet 1: Mbappe 4+ shots (1.74, Unibet)
Pick 2: Mbappe 2+ Shots on Target
Building on the stats from above, Mbappe has had 2+ SoT in 12/16 when playing the full 90 at home this season.
He managed just the one shot on target against Dortmund in the UCL, although had some fantastic chances. If he gets the same kind of chances, I have no doubt he will punish Barcelona.
Focusing a bit more on Barcelona, defensively they have been relatively sound, conceding the fifth-least shots in La Liga – but they haven’t faced a player like Mbappe. If they persist with a high line, as they did against Napoli, the Basque side could struggle.
Kounde might have some understanding of his French compatriot, but it’s not the most experienced or capable defence to handle a talent like Mbappe.
Bet 2: Mbappe 2+ Shots on Target (1.95, Unibet)
Pick 3: Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer
I’ve mentioned Mbappe’s goalscoring record this season, it’s something special. Having 39 goals in April is a serious achievement that has gone under the radar. At the Parc de Princes, he’s averaging almost a goal per game. It’s even more impressive when considering that he has only scored 2 or more goals on three occasions.
Mbappe has scored in 13/16 home games when completing the 90. That includes a goal in every UCL home game so far, too.
What a record, and what a player. Given the context of the game, it might be quite cagey at times. A draw would be a positive result for Barcelona, but it’s set up really nicely for Mbappe to cause problems, looking to take an advantage over to the Camp Nou.
Top price for this selection is with bet365, with other books as short as 1.7. I’m aware these selections have shortened a touch since yesterday, which shows the market it generally in agreement.
Bet 3: Mbappe AGS (1.95, bet365)
