13th April Premier League Preview: Burnley vs Brighton
The Clarets are currently six points adrift of safety, but with fixtures against fellow relegation candidates Sheffield Utd and Nottingham Forest still to come, there remains more than a glimmer of hope for survival.
Pick 1: Esteve O0.5 Fouls + Assignon O0.5 Fouls (1.77, PaddyPower)
Pick 2: Odobert O1.5 Shots (1.77, Unibet)
Longshot @ 9/2
Players Out
Burnley: Aaron Ramsey, Redmond, Koleosho, Beyer, Al-Dakhil, Massengo, Dara O’Shea
Also Vincent Kompany will be missing from the touchline due to suspension.
Brighton: Solly March, Hinshelwood, Mitoma, Gilmour, Milner, Webster (25%), Ferguson (50%)
Predicted Line-ups
Burnley (4-4-2): Muric, Assignon, Delcroix, Esteve, Charlie Taylor, Cullen, Berge, Foster, Bruun Larsen, Fofana, Odobert
Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen, Lamptey, Van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan, Gross, Baleba, Adingra, Joao Pedro, Enciso, Welbeck
Pick 1: Esteve O0.5 Fouls + Assignon O0.5 Fouls
Both Esteve and Assignon were January additions for Burnley, and have been quick to establish themselves as mainstays in the starting eleven. They are averaging the most fouls for the season in Burnley team, with 1.76 and 2.3 fouls / 90 respectively (although from a smaller sample size).
Esteve has featured in 10 games since January, and has made a foul in eight. He commits a majority of his fouls getting too tight to his attacker, and is often drawn out of position. His foul data at home:
- 2 fouls vs Fulham (44 mins appearance in the second-half)
- 1 foul vs Arsenal (subbed after 60 mins)
- 3 fouls vs Bournemouth (90 mins)
- 2 fouls vs Brentford (90 mins)
- 3 fouls vs Wolves (90 mins)
With O’Shea suspended, Esteve should be in for another 90 min spell barring any injury or dismissal.
Assignon too has some interesting data, with a foul in 9/9 since arriving in England.
Both players draw solid matchups too against Brighton – Esteve will find duels potentially with Joao Pedro (if he starts) and Welbeck. Pedro is drawing 2.47 fouls / 90 – the most in the Brighton squad. Assignon potentially will be up against Enciso, who is drawing 2.21 fouls / 90.
Bet 1: Esteve O0.5 Fouls + Assignon O0.5 Fouls (1.77, PaddyPower)
Pick 2: Odobert 01.5 Shots
I had the pleasure of watching Burnley vs Wolves not too long ago, as Kompany was experimenting with a few players playing in different positions. I analysed it separately in a blog post for members, but one player who particularly stood out was Wilson Odobert.
He’s featured off the left for large parts of the season, and despite both Bruun Larsen and Lyle Foster starting against Wolves, it was the Frenchman who partnered David Fofana up front.
He’s currently averaging the most shots in the Burnley squad this season (2.26 shots / 90), and has seen a positional change moving into a more advanced role – his shot price presents immense value on Unibet.
Despite blanking last game against Everton, he sees a notable uptick in shots at home, averaging 2.95 / 90, with 4, 4, 6 in the last three at Turf Moor. 2+ shots has landed in 6/9 starts at home, failing against Liverpool, Arsenal and Everton.
Brighton have been inconsistent defensively, but Burnley desperately need the points, and it’s a winnable game, considering how poor the Seagulls have been on the road. I like the Burnley shots potential, Odobert in particular.
This same bet is pretty much 1.3 on most other books, too.
Bet 2: Odobert 01.5 Shots (1.77, Unibet)
Longshot @ 9/2
Keeping it really simple, if both of the aforementioned players start, I really fancy fouls.
Data looks solid, as does the matchup. Contextually, it’s a big game for the Clarets so I expect them to be aggressive – time is running out for points.
- Assignon 2+ Fouls
- Esteve 2+ Fouls
Doubling these two on PaddyPower comes out at 5.45, which looks great value based on the data above.
