21st April Premier League Preview: Crystal Palace vs West Ham
West Ham were one of four English clubs dumped from European competitions this week, and now face a tough test against Glasners’ Eagles buoyed on by their weekend victory at Anfield.
Pick 1: Munoz O1.5 Fouls (2.1, PaddyPower)
Pick 2: O22.5 Match Fouls (1.72, Skybet)
Pick 3: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive a Card (2.07, bet365)
Longshot @ 5/1
Players Out
Crystal Palace: Sam Johnstone, Doucoure, Guehi, Lerma, Franca, Chris Richards (50%), Joel Ward (50%), Hughes (50%)
West Ham: Kalvin Philips (25%), Aguerd (25%), Areola (50%), Mavropanos (50%), Bowen (75%)
Predicted Line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson, Joel Ward, Andersen, Chris Richards, Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell, Olise, Eze, Mateta
West Ham (4-2-3-1): Coufal, Zouma, Mavropanos, Emerson, Edson Alvarez, Soucek, Ward-Prowse, Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen
Pick 1: Munoz O1.5 Fouls
Since arriving from Genk in January, Daniel Munoz has been a mainstay as a right wing-back under Oliver Glasner, playing every available minute in his 10 league appearances.
In that time, he’s made 2+ fouls in 6/10, and at least 1 foul in 9/10.
West Ham provides an interesting matchup, too. It could be Kudus or Paqueta lining up on the Hammers’ left against Munoz. Both are an absolute perfect matchup for target fouls – drawing 2.59 and 2.3 fouls / 90 respectively.
Given the data and matchup, getting this price at odds against is great value. For context, this same bet is priced at 1.73 with Skybet, which is a more accurate true price.
Bet 1: Munoz O1.5 Fouls (2.1, PaddyPower)
Pick 2: O22.5 Match Fouls
There are a lot of really interesting matchups across the pitch, and I can see it being a bit scrappy at times.
Kudus, Paqueta and Ayew all rank in the top 10 for fouls drawn in the Premier League this season, combined with the return of Olise and Eze who have missed large parts of the season.
H2H Fouls over the last season:
- West Ham 17 fouls, Crystal Palace 7 fouls (24 fouls total)
- Crystal Palace 9 fouls, West Ham 17 fouls (26 fouls total)
Since Glasner took over, the Eagles have seen an uptick in fouls made, with 12+ fouls in 5/7, and 23+ total match fouls in 4/7.
In the last eight, West Ham games have seen over 22.5 fouls in just 2/8, but they’re consistently going close, with 22+ fouls in 4/8, and 19+ fouls in 7/8. There were 36 fouls recently against Bayer Leverkusen, and once again it’s a fantastic matchup. The line is already higher than the average, but the matchups make this a lucrative market.
Bet 2: O22.5 Match Fouls (1.72, Skybet)
Pick 3: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Glasner has a slight selection headache going into this clash, with defensive injuries to Lerma, Guehi, potentially Joel Ward too. At the other end of the field, there are fewer issues. Olise, Eze, Ayew have all returned, and featured in the last fixture against Liverpool.
The Eagles have scored in every game under their new German manager, and have been good for a goal at Selhurst Park too – netting in ten of their last eleven.
I can certainly see them conceding, though, given the aforementioned injury woes. Bowen played the full 90 against Leverkusen, and could potentially be in for another start, given the Hammers a full strength frontline.
Earlier in the season, these two played out a 1-1 draw in East London, taking the streak of both teams scoring in this H2H to ten.
Building on the fouls previously, some of the matchups we might see:
- Munoz vs Kudus
- Olise vs Emerson
- Eze vs Coufal
- Paqueta vs everyone
- Bowen vs Tyrick Mitchell
A lot of skilful players, I can see fouls, cynical fouls, and cards for both to boost this price.
Bet 3: Both Teams to Score + Both Teams to Receive a Card (2.07, bet365)
Longshot @ 5/1
Doubling down on Match Fouls, going to ladder up to 29+ Match Fouls with Skybet. 36 fouls in the game last time against Bayer Leverkusen, and we should see a similar XI. Palace are an incredible matchup for drawing fouls, so hoping for a few whistles.
- O28.5 Match Total Fouls Committed
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
