27th April Premier League Preview: Everton vs Brentford

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Both Everton and Brentford find themselves in similar situations – straggling near the bottom, realistically one more win until Premier League safety is assured, having found a little bit of form late on. Everton have won their last three, including the Merseyside derby, whilst Brentford are undefeated in five.

Pick 1: McNeil o1.5 Shots (1.9, Unibet)

Pick 2: Tarkowski O0.5 Fouls + Brentford O0.5 Offsides (1.86, bet365)

Long(er) shot @ 3.25

Players Out

Everton: Patterson, Dele Alli, Gomes, Coleman, Dobbin, Mykolenko (25%), Beto, Calvert-Lewin (75%)

Brentford: Josh DaSilva, Hickey, Rico Henry, Ben Mee, Maupay, Ivan Toney (75%)

Predicted Line-ups

Everton: Pickford, Godfrey, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko, Harrison, Garner, Onana, McNeil, Doucoure, Calvert-Lewin

Brentford: Flekken, Ajer, Collins, Pinnock, Reguilon, Norgaard, Janelt, Jensen, Mbeumo, Wissa, Toney

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Pick 1: McNeil o1.5 Shots

Behind Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil has been pulling the trigger most for the Toffees this season, averaging 1.71 shots / 90 minutes.

McNeil has racked up 2+ shots in 11/18 at home in total this season, including each of the last four at Goodison Park. Although Brentford have been solid since reverting to a back-four, they are shipping on average 15 shots per game on the road this season, which is amongst the highest in the league. Everton’s form has massively improved in front of a home support, so I fancy chances and shots to be on the agenda.

McNeil had 3 shots in the reverse fixture, and 2 shots at home against Brentford last season. I perceive a fair price to be closer to 1.6 based on the data this season, and matchup.

Bet 1: McNeil o1.5 Shots (1.8, Unibet)

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Pick 2: Tarkowski O0.5 Fouls + Brentford O0.5 Offsides

Tarkowski has seen a massive uptick in fouls in recent weeks, and now draws a solid matchup to extend the record.

In the last 22 games in all comps (all Premier League opponents), the CB has hit 1+ foul in 20/22, and 2+ fouls in 13/22!

It’s the Brentford forward line drawing the most fouls, too:

• Bryan Mbeumo: 2.54 fouls drawn / 90
• Ivan Toney: 1.90 fouls drawn / 90
• Yoane Wissa: 1.86 fouls drawn / 90

Keeping it simple with the offsides pairing, as 1+ offside has landed for Brentford in 15/18 away games, and 1+ offside against Everton in 20/21 at Goodison Park.

Brentford were flagged three times in the reverse fixture at the Gtec Community Stadium, and once in the H2H on Merseyside last season.

Data looks fantastic for this price, hopefully it follows through.

Bet 2: Tarkowski O0.5 Fouls + Brentford O0.5 Offsides (1.86, bet365)

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Long(er) shot @ 3.25

Building on the previous selection, Tarkowski’s data is difficult to ignore – 2+ fouls has landed in 7/9 last games, and now it’s a solid matchup to once again target him. Although Brentford rank low in the league for fouls drawn, they seem to be concentrated on the forward line which bodes well.

• Tarkowski 2+ Fouls (3.25, bet365)

Ivan Toney returning to lead the line would be a bonus, although even without him this price is good. The striker did train midweek, and seemingly was omitted from the game against Luton as a precaution, so should be in line for a start.

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Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!

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