4th April Premier League Preview: Chelsea vs Man Utd
Although six positions and eight points separate these two, performances haven’t been too dissimilar – but which underperformer will prevail here?
Pick 1: O7.5 Man Utd Goal-Kicks + Bruno O0.5 Fouls (2.05, bet365)
Pick 2: Hojlund Shot on Target (1.8, bet365)
Pick 3: Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Tackles + Onana O2.5 Saves (1.83, bet365)
Longshot @ 14/1 included at the end
Players Out:
Chelsea: Wesley Fofana, Lavia, Reece James, Chukwuemeka, Colwill, Nkunku, Ugochukwu, Chalobah, Robert Sanchez, Chilwell (50%), Gusto (75%)
Man Utd: Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, Lindelof, Malacia, Martial, Bayindir, Evans (25%), Varane (50%)
Predicted Lineups:
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Petrovic, Gusto, Thiago Silva, Badiashile, Cucurella, Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, Gallagher, Palmer, Sterling, Jackson
Man Utd (4-2-3-1): Onana, Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Wan-Bissaka, Mainoo, McTominay, Fernandes, Garnacho, Rashford, Hojlund
Pick 1: O7.5 Man Utd Goal-Kicks + Bruno O0.5 Fouls
The last team to fail to force Man Utd to have 8+ goal-kicks was Newport County in the FA Cup – all the way back in January. Since then, Man Utd have had 8+ goal-kicks in 10 games straight, including 10+ goal-kicks in 8/10.
With Lisandro Martinez set for another extended period on the touchlines, backing Chelsea shots seems a cert. The line of 365 is a touch too high for my liking, so I’m going for an alternative angle with goal-kicks instead.
Pairing that with a Bruno Foul, which has landed in 29/36 starts across the whole league in all comps. That includes a foul in the last 10 consecutive games, and in the reverse fixture too.
Stats look great, but it’s the matchup against Chelsea’s midfield too.
- Gallagher 1.52 fouls drawn / 90
- Caicedo 1.66 fouls drawn / 90
- Enzo Fernandez 1.57 fous drawn / 90
These three have drawn the most fouls for Chelsea this season – all the midfielders. Should Bruno find enough duels with these three, he should be good for at least a foul.
Bet 1: O7.5 Man Utd Goal-Kicks + Bruno O0.5 Fouls (2.05, bet365)
Pick 2: Hojlund Shot on Target
Hojlund has established himself as a mainstay under ten Hag, and is set to start at Stamford Bridge. His stats for the season are actually quite interesting – averaging just 1.47 shots per game. In 26 starts, he’s had 4 or more shots on just one occasion, 3+ in just five games. He tends to not get too many chances, but the chances he does get are good ones.
The Danish striker has had a shot on target in 17/26 starts, including 9 of the last 10.
Initially, I highlighted Hojlund O1.5 shots @ 1.72, but opted for the slightly larger price for a shot on target. On just two occasions this season, Hojlund has had 2 shots with neither on target. However, five times has Hojlund had a Shot on Target from a singular shot.
Chelsea have been extremely leaky, so I fancy him in this matchup, too.
Bet 2: Hojlund Shot on Target (1.8, bet365)
Pick 3: Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Tackles + Onana O2.5 Saves
Since returning from injury at the end of December, Enzo has made 2+ tackles in 13/15. The World Cup winner sees a general uptick in tackles at home, averaging 2.81 / 90 which is the second-highest in the squad. He made exactly 2 tackles in the reverse fixture, but was dribbled past 3 times and made 2 fouls. He was in and amongst the duels, and I expect the same at Stamford Bridge.
Onana has been the leagues busiest keeper since the turn of the year, and has made 3+ saves in the last 12 consecutive games. With a really poor result at home against Burnley, I expect Chelsea to come out with some intent, potentially forcing the play as they look to make up for it.
Chelsea have forced 3+ saves from the opposition keeper in 9/14 home games this season in the league.
Bet 3: Enzo Fernandez O1.5 Tackles + Onana O2.5 Saves (1.83, bet365)
Longshot
Longshot for this game is a combination of a few stats mentioned previously:
- BTTS: Yes
- Hojlund 2+ Shots
- Hojlund SoT
- O8.5 Man Utd goal-kicks
- Enzo Fernandez O2.5 Tackles
- Bruno Fernandes O0.5 Fouls
Bet Builder on bet365 comes out at 14/1
