7th April Premier League Preview: Man Utd vs Liverpool

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Despite ten Hag’s struggles this season, he’s managed to frustrate Klopp, having taken a point from Anfield, and knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup barely 3 weeks ago.

Pick 1: O33.5 Match Shots (1.8, bet365)

Pick 2: Wataru Endo O1.5 Fouls (1.72, bet365)

Pick 3: Bruno O0.5 Fouls + O7.5 Man Utd Goal-Kicks (1.8, bet365)

Longshot 1 @ 7/1

Longshot 2 @ 22/1

Players Out:

Man Utd: Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, Lindelof, Malacia, Martial, Casemiro (25%), Evans (25%), Varane (25%)

Liverpool: Matip, Thiago, Bajcetic, Trent, Allison, Jota

Line-ups:

Man Utd (4-2-3-1): Onana, Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, Kambwala, Dalot, Mainoo, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Rashford, Garnacho, Hojlund

Liverpool (4-3-3): Kelleher, Bradley, Quansah, Van Dijk, Robertson, Endo, Szoboszlai, MacAllister, Salah, Diaz, Nunez

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Pick 1: O33.5 Match Shots

Not sure this one needs much of an explanation given Man Utd’s recent form, but I’ll delve into the stats anyway.

Man Utd recent total shot counts:

• 47 vs Chelsea (A)
• 42 vs Brentford (A)
• 42 vs Liverpool (H)
• 48 vs Everton (H)
• 30 vs City (A)
• 36 vs Forest (A)

The list goes on and on – excluding that City game, the last time a Man Utd had under 34 shots was against Spurs on the 14th of January.

Liverpool too have put up some monster shot counts this season, putting up at least 24 shots in 8/13 last games. The matchup against Man Utd is once against poised for Klopp’s men to find chances, but they have also been guilty of late of allowing opponents shots. They’ve conceded 10+ shots in 8/12 away games this season.

Over 33.5 shots has landed in both H2H’s between Liverpool and Man Utd this season, so it’s shaping up to be a fantastic price, even despite dropping a few lines since opening.

Bet 1: O33.5 Match Shots (1.8, bet365)

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Pick 2: Wataru Endo O1.5 Fouls

Wataru Endo missed last game due to a knock, but has been confirmed by Jurgen Klopp to be in contention to start at Old Trafford. Given the importance of the fixture, and the importance of the Japanese midfielder, he shouldn’t miss a minute of this game.

I’ve taken Endo a lot this season, and mentioned previously that if odds are backable  as a single, it becomes a systematic play.

Against Man Utd, Endo has made 4 and 2 fouls, and is expected to be in amongst the duels again. He’s made 2+ fouls in 9/13 league games this season, now draws some great matchups in midfield against the likes of Bruno, Garnacho and potentially Hojlund.

Bet 2: Wataru Endo O1.5 Fouls (1.72, bet365)

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Pick 3: Bruno O0.5 Fouls + O7.5 Man Utd Goal-Kicks 

Bruno foul has landed in 26/28 last games he has started. He missed the reverse league fixture between the two, but made 2 fouls in the FA Cup game even despite being carded early (not for a foul, for arguing). Given his record for the season, this seems a cert, but also consider that Bruno’s foul counts against Liverpool over the season three seasons are:

• 2 fouls, FA Cup 23/24
• 3 fouls, League 22/23
• 2 fouls, League 22/23
• 1 foul, League 21/22
• 1 foul, League 21/22

Expecting Liverpool to dominate, I’m backing them to force Man Utd into a few Goal-kicks. Man Utd had exactly 8 goal-kicks in the FA Cup game between these two, and a massive 19 in the reverse league game!

6 of the last 7 Liverpool away games have featured at least 8 opposition goal-kicks, and Man Utd have had 17, 12 and 10 in their last three home games.

Bet 3: Bruno O0.5 Fouls + O7.5 Man Utd Goal-Kicks (1.8, bet365)

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Longshot 1:

First longshot is an extension of the aforementioned research. I expect quite an open game, and chances at either end. If Man Utd take an early lead, Liverpool will probably face a low-block, and have a ton of longshots. Man Utd have a positive record against Liverpool this season, so I wouldn’t say this is an unlikely gamestate. If Liverpool take the lead, they won’t take the foot off the gas, which could lead to quite an open game with chances at both ends. In my opinion, this would be an ideal gamestate for Longshot 1.

• Over 39.5 Total Shots
• Over 17.5 Total Goal-Kicks

Double @ 7/1

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Longshot 2:

Off the back of scoring an absolute worldie, I fancy MacAllister to pull the trigger a few more times, as he starts in a slightly more advanced role in front of Endo. The Argentine had 3 shots (in regular time) in the FA Cup game against Man Utd, and has had 3+ shots in each of the last three games.

Endo has made 3+ fouls in 5/13 in the league this season, and I make this selection great value given the matchup and situation.

I really like the Liverpool shots price, regardless of the gamestate. Klopp has a rare abundance of attacking players available, with every game now essentially a final in the run in. Liverpool have been taking the most shots in the league since the turn of the year, and Man Utd have been conceding the second-most (only behind Sheffield Utd), so it seems like a perfect matchup on paper.

• MacAllister O2.5 Shots
• Endo O2.5 Fouls
• Liverpool O22.5 Shots

Treble @ 22/1

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