1st June Champions League Final: Dortmund vs Real Madrid
The 2023/24 season draws to a close on Saturday, as the Champions League final takes place in Wembley.
From being in the Group of Death alongside PSG, Newcastle and AC Milan, Dortmund fought through, completed a sensational comeback against Atletico Madrid, before back-to-back shutouts against Mbappe’s PSG to secure a spot in the final. It’s been far from smooth sailing for Real Madrid, too. After edging past RB Leipzig by a 2-1 margin over two legs, Ancelotti’s men dug deep at the Etihad, and managed a win on penalties to dump the current holders out. Bayern Munich proved stern opponents, but again, Real Madrid got the job done.
Real Madrid will be searching to extend their European dominance, and secure a 15th Champions League honours. Dortmund will be looking to add a second Champions League trophy to their cabinet – the last one won back in 1997. A lot might be said about the good fortunes of Dortmund in the previous round, but they are undeniably resilient, and their spot in the final is entirely deserved.
Pick 1: Real Madrid to Lift the Trophy + Under 3.5 Goals (1.9, bet365)
Pick 2: Under 5.5 Total Cards, Under 1.5 First Half Cards (1.86, bet365)
Pick 3: Fede Valverde 1+ Foul (1.8, PaddyPower)
Predicted Line-ups:
Terzic will have near enough a full squad available for selection, so we might well see an identical lineup to that which knocked out PSG. Real Madrid will have to make a few changes from the most recent Champions League outing, and Tchoumeni since picked up an injury. Lunin has contracted a flu, and has travelled separately to London, so is set to miss out on the final despite his heroics in the competition so far.
Dortmund (4-2-3-1): Kobel, Ryerson, Jummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Can, Sabitzer, Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi, Fullkrug
Real Madrid (4-3-3): Courtois, Carvajal, Rudiger, Nacho, Mendy, Kroos, Camavinga, Valverde, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Vinicius Jr.
Pick 1: Real Madrid to Lift the Trophy + Under 3.5 Goals
Real Madrid are the most successful club in Champions League history, head and shoulders above anyone else with 14 trophies. Carlo Ancelotti is the most prolific manager too, with four Champions League medals under his belt – two with Real Madrid and two with AC Milan. If anyone knows how to win such a big event, it is Ancelotti.
Dortmund, meanwhile, find themselves in just their third Champions League final – the last one being in 2013, which they lost. The last time Los Blancos tasted defeat in a Champions League final was back in 1981. Since then, they have won seven straight. Because of that, it’s impossible to look past Real Madrid to lift the trophy, they are shrewd and experienced enough to succeed in such a big occasion.
The last five consecutive UCL finals have done under 3.5 goals, in fact, the last four have all ended 1-0. Both teams aren’t particularly intense pressers, and should sit back off the ball. Because of that, the game is likely to be quite cagey, settled and possession-based. Only 1/6 knockout UCL games for Dortmund have gone over 3.5 goals, and 2/6 for Madrid. Because of that, opposing goals seems a sensible way to boost the odds for Madrid to achieve a 15th UCL honours.
Bet 1: Real Madrid to Lift the Trophy + Under 3.5 Goals (1.9, bet365)
Pick 2: Under 5.5 Total Cards, Under 1.5 First Half Cards
Expecting a cagey game, referee Slavko Vincic might be more reserved is dishing out cards. The Slovenian has given out 21 cards in 6 games in the tournament so far – an average of 3.5 cards per game. Looking into previous Champions League finals:
- 6 cards total, 0 first-half cards
- 1 card total, 0 first-half cards
- 3 cards total, 1 first-half card
- 8 cards total, 1 first-half card
- 0 cards total
- 1 card total, 0 first-half cards
This bet has landed in 4/6 last Champions League finals. In the most recent example, four cards were handed out in stoppage time, too. Referees are most likely to try and keep the game flowing on such a big occasion, so could be lenient with bookings. Given that Vincic seemingly fits the above description, and the potential for the game to be quite cagey, opposing bookings is the route to go.
Bet 2: Under 5.5 Total Cards, Under 1.5 First Half Cards (1.86, bet365)
Pick 3: Fede Valverde 1+ Foul
Fede Valverde has made a foul in 5/6 knockout games – but the referee played advantage on the one game he failed. I’ve taken Valverde fouls in every knockout fixture for Madrid, as he generally sees an uptick in bigger games. The Uruguayan has made a foul in 13/17 of the last games he has started – so this price looks absolutely huge for a midfielder in such a big game.
In addition, Valverde can typically pop up on the right-wing for Madrid, as Vinicius operates centrally or on the left with Rodrygo. That would put Valverde in duels with Ryerson – who is drawing 1.2 fouls / game in all competitions for Dortmund. Sabitzer (1.19) and Emre Can (1.05) are also drawing over a foul per game, both of whom occupy a similar zone of the field to Valverde.
Stats look fantastic for this one, with a fair price closer to 1.6. It’s surprising that PaddyPower are offering a price so high, but it’s value too good to ignore.
Bet 3: Fede Valverde 1+ Foul (1.8, PaddyPower)
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
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