22nd May Europa League Final Preview: Atalanta vs Leverkusen
Dublin hosts the all-important finale of Europa League 2024, contested between two extremely worthy finalists. Leverkusen have a 51-game unbeaten run at stake, as Xabi Alonso will be looking to add European honours to his Bundesliga title. In his way, however, stand Atalanta who prevailed against Liverpool, perhaps the surprise result of the competition – it shows they are not a team to underestimate.
It’s a fantastic matchup, and a fantastic opportunity to make some profit at the backend of the football season – I’ve got a couple of leans included in this article which hold good value.
Lean 1: Both Teams to Score (1.8, bet365)
Lean 2: Atalanta Most Cards (1.9, bet365)
Predicted Line-ups
Alonso has a no known injuries to contend with, as Wirtz looks to have recovered from a thigh injury. It’s a bit more complicated for Gasperini, who will have to cope without the services of Marten de Roon and Toloi.
🔵Atalanta: Musso, Djimsiti, Hien, Scalvini, Zappacosta, Pasalic, Ederson, Ruggeri, Koopmeiners, De Ketelaere, Scamacca
🔴Leverkusen: Kovar, Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie, Frimpong, Xhaka, Andrich, Grimaldo, Hofmann, Wirtz, Schick
Lean 1: Both Teams to Score (1.8, bet365)
It’s always difficult to research games like this – a final is different to any other game these two have played this season. League data is relevant, but less so that normal. Regardless, both teams have been incredibly free-scoring this season and that trend should persist right until the end. Atalanta have been great defensively, but they’ve got a couple of key absentees which could provide Leverkusen with chances. Not many teams have managed to shut out Alonso’s men, it will be a challenge for Atalanta.
There’s the argument that finals can be cagey and low-scoring, but both teams have scored in each of the last five Europa League finals:
- Sevilla 1 – 1 Roma (4-1 Sevilla win on penalties)
- Frankfurt 1 – 1 Rangers (5-4 Frankfurt win on penalties)
- Villarreal 1 – 1 Man Utd (11-10 Villarreal win on penalties)
- Sevilla 3 – 2 Inter Milan
- Chelsea 4 – 1 Arsenal
Given that both teams to score has a fantastic hit rate on Europa League finals, paired with the attack-minded nature of both teams participating this year, 1.8 looks a really nice, backable price that covers some likely scorelines.
Lean 2: Atalanta Most Cards (1.9, bet365)
Atalanta received more cautions in 5/6 Europa League knockout games, Leverkusen opponents received more in 4/6 with two ties. Given how Atalanta defend, man-to-man, there should be plenty of fouls for the Italian side, especially if Leverkusen look to dominate the ball.
Atalanta have been hitting high foul counts all season with their defensive style – 14+ fouls in every Europa League knockout at an average of 16 fouls per game, whilst drawing just 10 fouls per game. This line has shortened since opening which also suggests the market favours this selection, too. I really like it.
Best of luck for any bets on this massive game! 🤞
