3rd May Premier League Preview: Luton vs Everton
The Hatters’ have floundered in recent games, losing their last three, which has afford Burnley to gain ground. It’s a nerve-wracking end to the season as both clubs hunt Nottingham Forest for the safety of 17th position and survival in the Premier League. Rob Edwards deserves credit for the job he has done, and might find confidence having already beaten Everton twice this season.
Pick 1: Tahith Chong O2.5 Fouls Drawn (2.8, Skybet)
Pick 2: Michael Keane O0.5 Fouls (1.72, PaddyPower)
Longshot @ 12/1
Players Out
Luton: Lockyer, Nakamba, Kabore, Jacob Brown, Bell, Dan Potts, Ogbene, Mads Andersen
Everton: Patterson, Dele Alli, Mykolenko, Coleman (75%), Calvert-Lewin (75%)
Predicted Line-ups
Luton (3-4-3): Kaminski, Burke, Mengi, Osho, Hashioka, Lokonga, Doughty, Chong, Morris, Adebayo
Everton (4-4-1-1): Pickford, Godfrey, Michael Keane, Branthwaite, Young, Harrison, Gueye, Garner, McNeil, Doucoure, Calvert-Lewin
Pick 1: Tahith Chong O2.5 Fouls Drawn
Tahith Chong is drawing the highest average fouls per game for Luton Town, with 2.82 per 90 minutes. As the Hatters continue to have an overcrowded infirmary, with 8 injuries, Chong has been the beneficiary, with more minutes under his belt. He’s started 12 of the last 13 games for Luton in all comps.
In that time, the former Manchester United man has been fouled three or more times in 7/12. Looking into the five failures, though, they were against Man City (twice), Liverpool, Man Utd and Bournemouth.
Chong also seems to see more of the ball at home, and therefore draw more fouls. His last 4 home appearances:
- 4 fouls drawn vs Brentford
- 3 fouls drawn vs Bournemouth
- 3 fouls drawn vs Forest
- 5 fouls drawn vs Villa
Considering this has landed in each of the last 4 home games, a price close to 2/1 looks extremely good value.
Everton have made the third-most fouls in the Premier League this season. Chong has only featured against Everton once this season, and drew exactly one foul in a 23′ minute cameo off the bench. Everton made 14 fouls in that game.
Bet 1: Tahith Chong O2.5 Fouls Drawn (2.8, Skybet)
Pick 2: Michael Keane O0.5 Fouls
There is a sizeable chance this one gets void, but in the absence of clarification I’ve played it anyway.
Tarkowski is expecting a child, and hence comes into this fixture as a doubt. The centre back has been a key cog in the Sean Dyche system, and has played almost every single available minute of the domestic season so far. With Everton clear of relegation this season (barring any more points deductions), I’m sure he will be cut some slack and allowed a little bit of a break – allowing Michael Keane to have a run in defence.
Keane has featured sporadically this season, with just 12 appearances. When starting, he has made a foul in 5/7.
I really like his matchup against Carlton Morris, potentially Adebayo and Chong. It’s set to be a physical battle, and considering his potential lack of match fitness, the former Burnley man could struggle. Morris is drawing the amongst the most fouls for Luton, with 1.58 fouls drawn per 90 minutes.
The striker has battled hard against the Everton CB’s this season already:
- In the reverse Premier League fixture, Tarkowski made 1 foul, Branthwaite 3 fouls
- In the FA Cup fixture, Tarkowski made 3 fouls, Branthwaite 1 foul.
It should be a busy afternoon for whoever starts – I really like the price for Keane on PaddyPower, so hopefully he starts. He is currently priced as the Everton player least-likely to make a foul, which shouldn’t be the case in my opinion given the matchup.
Bet 2: Michael Keane O0.5 Fouls (1.72, PaddyPower)
Longshot @ 12/1
Given that Tarkowski made 3 fouls against a duo of Adebayo and Carlton Morris in the most recent H2H fixture, I don’t see why Keane should be priced at 12/1.
- Michael Keane 3+ Fouls (13.0, PaddyPower)
The data is limited, but the matchup is ideal especially considering Luton are still fighting for survival. If he doesn’t start, this selection (along with Pick 2) will be void.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
