7th May Champions League Preview: PSG vs Dortmund
There were chances at both ends in the first leg, although both lacked a killer edge in front of goal. Its the German side who take a one-goal advantage over to France, and the stage is set in Paris for a blockbuster fixture.
Pick 1: Vitinha O0.5 Fouls + Hakimi O0.5 Fouls (2.0, PaddyPower)
Pick 2: Mbappe O0.5 Offsides + O.5 Shots on Target (1.8, Skybet)
Longshot @ 4/1
Predicted Line-ups
PSG: Donnarumma, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Nuno Mendes, Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Dembele, Goncalo Ramos, Mbappe
Dortmund: Kobel, Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Sabitzer, Can, Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi, Fullkrug
Pick 1: Vitinha O0.5 Fouls + Hakimi O0.5 Fouls
Trusting the data for this bet, as both players have a notable foul record in this years’ Champions League.
Vitinha has made a foul in 9/9 UCL starts this season. In three matchups against Dortmund, he has made:
- 2 fouls in the home fixture, group stages
- 3 fouls in the away fixture, group stages
- 1 foul in the reverse knockout fixture
Hakimi has made a foul in 8/10 UCL starts this season, against his former club Dortmund he has made:
- 3 fouls in the home fixture, group stages
- 2 fouls in the away fixture group stages
- 3 fouls in the reverse knockout fixture
Placing a lot of faith in the UCL stats, it’s a massive game, and has much more meaning that a regular league fixture. Of the expected PSG starters on Tuesday, Hakimi and Vitinha have the highest average fouls per game in the Champions League.
Bet 1: Vitinha O0.5 Fouls + Hakimi O0.5 Fouls (2.0, PaddyPower)
Pick 2: Mbappe O0.5 Offsides + O2.5 Shots
Next selection is a bit more interesting, and I fancy Mbappe to be heavily involved.
I perceive his offside pricing with Skybet to be extremely generous- a fair price would be closer to 1.3. The Frenchman was flagged two times in the reverse fixture in Germany – taking his average offsides in the Champions League this season to a mega 1.73 per game!
That’s a huge number of times caught offside, but it makes sense with how he plays. He starts his runs from an offside position, and is typically playing on the last defender. Dortmund, too, are a fantastic matchup to target opposition offsides. Terzic gets his players arranged into a generally high and disciplined line – they have caught their opponents offside the most times in the Bundesliga this season.
That defensive line has faced Mbappe three times in the Champions League this season, catching him offsides in all three games.
To bump the odds up a bit, I’m adding in Mbappe to also have a Shot on Target, to take the overall odds to 1.8.
The talisman has managed a shot on target in 9/11 Champions League games this season, including all three games against Dortmund. Given the circumstances, of PSG chasing the game in front of a home support, Mbappe should be heavily involved in the attacking third.
Bet 2: Mbappe O0.5 Offsides + O.5 Shots on Target (1.8, Skybet)
Longshot @ 4/1
Building on the previous selection, Dortmund have caught Mbappe offsides 2+ times in 2/3 H2H’s this season. In both away fixtures against Dortmund, Mbappe has had exactly 3 shots, 1 on target. In the game at the Parc-de-Princes, he managed 5 shots, 1 on target. Mbappe’s shot line on bet365 is set at a massive 5.5 – one of the highest lines I have ever seen. The market favours his involvement, and I’m following suit.
- Mbappe O1.5 Offsides
- Mbappe O3.5 Shots
- Mbappe O0.5 Shots on Target
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
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