25/26 Premier League Outrights #4 – League Table
Fourth and final set of outrights for the Premier League season, and I’ve got predominantly two teams to cover in this article.
Before that though, in case you missed it, here are the links to view the previous three sets of outrights, fully researched and posted over on Twitter:
- Player Assists (x3 bets)
- Player Cards (x3 bets)
- Player Goals (x3 bets)
Predicting the table is generally a difficult task – it can be easy to over-react to pre-season friendlies or transfer news, but it is important to remember that dynamics of a team change drastically week on week. However, there are two teams who have shown good intent so and have quality in depth, teams I am particularly bullish on for the upcoming campaign…
Brighton
The Seagulls finished 8th last season under Fabian Hurzeler in his debut season in England. Brighton also got to the FA Cup quarter-finals, in what was a pretty average season on the surface. It is worth noting that they came under significant adversity throughout the campaign, and with a bit more luck should be challenging further up the pile.
Brighton suffered 48 injuries last season, losing 1944 days to injuries in total – the highest in the league. Statistically, Brighton suffered the most injuries, but it importantly affected some of their key players – Joao Pedro, Matt O’Riley, Veltman, Solly March are examples which spring to mind.
I think it is also useful to bear in mind that Brighton spent big in 24/25 summer window, having sold Caicedo. The Seagulls brought in Rutter, Minteh, Wieffer, Gruda and Kadioglu – all of which have had a bit more time to adjust, and are set for much bigger roles this season. Even Fabian Hurzeler himself was a new arrival.
Finishing 8th is key though, because it was just outside of the European spots. Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, two of Brightons main rivals I would say, will have to deal with that extra fixture congestion this season which is a massive bonus for Brighton.
Brighton have lost 2 key starters in Joao Pedro and Estupinan over their summer, so they are looking slightly thin in certain areas, fullback for one, potentially at centre back as well. However, Brighton’s recruitment has a track record for being second to none, and they could still bring in some more players.
Additionally, Brighton actually drew all 3 home games against the relegated sides last season, so should really have taken 6 points more. They even drew to Leicester at the King Power, so realistically could have been 8 points better off. If buts and maybes, but converting those draws into wins puts them on 69 points, level with Chelsea and in 5th on goal difference.
Quite a few points to take in there, so now lets go into some of the angles of interest…
- Brighton Top Half Finish @ 1.8
Looks a very safe pick – Brighton were 7 points clear of Brentford in 11th, and look stronger in a lot of departments – the same of which cannot be said about some of their rivals teams – more on them later!
I know most prefer to go for a bit longer odds being outrights so a couple more:
- Top 6 finish @ 5/1
- Top 5 finish @ 10/1
Top 5 would be Brighton’s best ever finish in the Premier League in their history, 6th would match it.
Lets focus on some other teams now – last season, the top 4 was Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea – it’s difficult to envision any of those teams getting knocked out of the top 6, or even the top 4.
Spurs and Man Utd obviously fell off a cliff, and it’s uncertain whether they have improved enough to get back towards the top of the table. Assuming the top 4 stays the same, 5th and 6th will likely be between Newcastle, Aston Villa, Spurs, Man Utd, Nottingham Forest and Brighton.
Looking at all of those teams on paper, I definitely do fancy Brighton to finish at least second in that group, especially considering that only Brighton and Man Utd will have no European games to compete in.
That brings me onto the next selection…
- Brighton to finish higher than Man Utd @ 3.4
Just think the Ssituation at Brighton is a lot better, posied to impove and they had a 19 point gap last season, which makes these odds appeal. Given that Brighton hopefully dont regress, are Man Utd 19 points better than they were last season?
This strays away from my usual line of thinking, and it’s quite biased really. I personally don’t think the situation has changed much at Man Utd, not enough of the key issues have been addressed to justify them making up the 19 point gap on Brighton from last season. Assuming Brighton don’t regress, are Man Utd 19 points better than they wee last season? I think not, personally, so this price of 3.4 looks nice.
- Brighton above Newcastle @ 4.3
5 point gap between these two last season, Newcastle will have Europa league games and a thin squad after a pretty disastrous transfer window. If Isak leaves, expect this price to shorten.
Although there was just a 5-point gap between these sides last season, Newcastle have had a disastrous summer window (so far), which could only get worse if Isak leaves. Newcastle have a thin squad and Europa League fixtures to contend with – I could see this season getting quite messy for them. I also do prefer the bigger price here.
Anyway, plenty of potential angles for backing Brighton over the season, which concludes the first team. Next up is…
Everton
Probably a more controversial one here – but I’m not backing Everton to go and win the league, I just think they will do better than the market anticipates. The Toffees have had a rough couple of years battling relegation, but I think they might have just turned a corner since David Moyes arrived at the helm, able to put behind them the struggles of the Sean Dyche era by also playing at a new stadium.
Moyes took over on 11th January 2025 from Sean Dyche, at which point Everton had just 3 wins from 19 league games. The second half of the season brought 8 wins, just 4 losses and 31 points, compared to 17 points in the first half.
Moyes is obviously a familiar face on Merseyside, backed by the fans, Everton have shown promise in the summer window. A lot of the deadwood has been removed – Ashley Young, Calvert-Lewin, Doucoure, Holgate, Maupay. And in their place, younger and more promising talent has been brought in – Thierno Barry from Villarreal to replace DCL, Alcarez in for Doucoure, Dewsbury Hall too, Aznou to provide depth at fullback, while players like Grealish and Dibling have also been linked to a move to Everton – it shows intent, and that is important. Improvement is expected, and movement is in the right direction.
Everton could do with some more depth at the back, but that is an area they have generally done well in over the last few seasons. Only Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal conceded less than the Toffees last season, who have got experienced players in their ranks at the back. Overall, the qquad depth looks good on paper in my opinion, Everton have strengthened in the right areas.
I’m more confident on Brighton than Everton, but the angles I like best are:
- Everton higher than Palace @ 1.83
This might seem a strange one – Palace are in top form right now having just won the FA Cup and Community Shield. The Eagles finished 5 points above Everton last season, but I think a key factor here will be squad depth. Glasner hasn’t really had to alter his preferred eleven too much since he took over, which might have to change as Palace have to contest European fixtures. With just 2 incoming signings over the summer, the Eagles look a bit fragile.
Again, being outrights I prefer the look of longer-odds bets.
- Everton top half finish @ 3.0
Everton finished 8 points off this mark last season, but teams above them have been decimated over the summer, Brentford lost Mbeumo, Flekken, Norgaard. Bournemouth will be without Huijsen and Kerkez. I’ve mentioned Palace already, while Nottingham Forest also will have European games to focus on. Based on that, I can envision Everton really rallying under Moyes and putting together a positive season in their new stadium.
As I mentioned in the first section, Man Utd and Newcastle are teams I’m shorting this campaign, so my final two angles are.
- Everton above Man Utd 4.3, who Everton finished 6 points above last season.
- Everton above Newcastle 6.0 which I prefer slightly.
A longer article on here, but one which I enjoyed writing. This will be the final section for the outrights, so best of luck if tailing any, and be sure to check out the other 3 posts if you missed them!
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