30th March Premier League Preview: Aston Villa vs Wolves
It’s a Midlands derby, and both sides are unfortunately plagued with injuries. Although, off the back of changes, provides opportunity to back new players.
Pick 1: Ait-Nouri 1+ Shot (1.83, bet365)
Pick 2: Youri Tielemans 2+ Tackles (1.8, Ladbrokes / Coral)
Pick 3: Ait-Nouri 1+ Foul + Lemina 1+ Shot (1.86, bet365)
Players Out:
Aston Villa: Kamara, Buendia, Mings, Cash, McGinn, Jacob Ramsey (75%)
Wolves: Pedro Neto, Hwang, Dawson (25%), Bellegarde (25%)
Predicted Lineups:
Aston Villa (4-4-2): Martinez, Konsa, Diego Carlos, Pau Torres, Moreno, Bailey, Tielemans, Luiz, Zaniolo, Diaby, Watkins
Wolves (3-4-3): Sa, Kilman, Bueno, Toti, Semedo, Joao Gomes, Doyle, Ait-Nouri, Lemina, Fraser, Sarabia
Pick 1: Ait-Nouri 1+ Shot (1.83, bet365)
With Wolves playing three centre-halves, it allows the wingbacks to really push forward into advanced areas, especially Ait-Nouri.
Since returning from AFCON, he’s been very consistent, and has been rewarded with more consistent minutes. He completed the full 90 in the last four consecutive games. In the most recent game against Coventry, Ait-Nouri had a massive 7 shots!
Since returning from AFCON, he’s managed a shot in 6/8 starts, too.
With Neto and Hwang out, I think we see much more attacking influence from Ait-Nouri. He’s played Aston Villa once already this season, and managed a shot despite being subbed at half-time.
Considering he plays pretty much as a winger, I’m more than happy to take the value for a single shot here.
Bet 1: Rayan Ait-Nouri 1+ Shot (1.83, bet365)
Pick 2: Youri Tielemans 2+ Tackles (1.8, Ladbrokes / Coral)
With Boubacar Kamara out, Villa have needed to replace his aggressiveness / duelling ability in midfield. Kamara averaged 2.44 tackles / 90 this season for Villa, the highest in the team.
That burden initially fell upon McGinn, although his red card against Spurs rules him out for this fixture. It was Tielemans who filled in next to Douglas Luiz last time out against West Ham – he made 5 tackles, in addition to 4 fouls! A massive uptick in duels for him.
Similarly, in the games McGinn played in the DM role, he made 3, 4, 3, 3, 2 tackles in his 5 starts.
Tielemans, despite playing on the left for most of the season, has averaged 2.07 tackles / 90, which is amongst the highest in the team. He’s regenerated himself under Emery, playing with a lot more energy. Considering his positional change, I really like this value on offer.
Bet 2: Youri Tielemans 2+ Tackles (1.8, Ladbrokes / Coral)
Pick 3: Ait-Nouri 1+ Foul + Lemina 1+ Shot (1.86, bet365)
Going back to our Moroccan wingback, expecting him to get forward at will, he should find duels with Ezri Konsa. The Englishman has drawn the second-most fouls for Villa this season, only behind John McGinn, at an average of 1.75 / 90.
That includes drawing a foul in 11/11 home games in all comps this season.
Ait-Nouri too, since arriving from AFCON has made a foul in 6/8 starts, averaging 1.19 / 90 for the season in total. Playing the matchup here, the stats look solid too.
That’s priced @ 1.4 with bet365, so I’ve decided to pair it with a Lemina shot, as I expect him to be the beneficiary on injuries in an attacking sense.
With Neto and Hwang out, Gary O’Neil persisted with the 3-4-3 against Coventry, which saw Lemina start in front of Tommy Doyle and Joao Gomes. He managed 3 shots.
Even without the positional change, I like the price of 1.36 for a single shot for Lemina. He’s averaging 1.6 shots / 90 for the season, with a shot in 10/13 away games.
