3rd April Premier League Preview: Arsenal vs Luton
Luton Town have battled hard in recent weeks with an extensive injury report, and this might prove to be their toughest test yet. The Hatters have actually scored in the last 18 consecutive league games, but can they once again pass the test against the league’s best defence?
Pick 1: Odegaard O0.5 Fouls + Luton O0.5 Offsides (1.83, bet365)
Pick 2: Jorginho U0.5 shots (2.0, bet365)
Players Out:
Arsenal: Timber
Luton: Lockyer, Bell, Nakamba, Adebayo, Lokonga, Potts, Mads Andersen, Ogbene, Jacob Brown, Osho (25%), Doughty (25%), Chong (25%), Burke (25%)
Predicted Lineups:
Arsenal: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko, Jorginho, Rice, Odegaard, Martinelli, Havertz, Saka
Luton: Kaminski, Burke, Mengi, Hashioka, Kabore, Barkley, Mpanzu, Doughty, Townsend, Chong, Morris
Pick 1: Odegaard O0.5 Fouls + Luton O0.5 Offsides
Odegaard has a fantastic record for fouls this season, particularly at home. He’s made 1+ foul in 12/16 this season at the Emirates which is good enough in itself to take the odds of 1.44, but the matchup against Luton is also great.
In the last 10 games, Luton have drawn at least 12 fouls in every game!
In that period, notable opposition foul counts are:
- 16 fouls drawn vs Spurs
- 19 fouls drawn vs Aston Villa
- 15 fouls drawn vs Liverpool
- 21 fouls drawn vs Man Utd
- 13 fouls drawn vs Newcastle
Opposition midfielders have been the main culprits, too.
In the reverse fixture, Arsenal made just 7 fouls, however Odegaard made 3 of them.
Pairing that with a single Luton offside, which I perceive to hold great value.
Since returning from Dubai, Arsenal have caught opponents offside at least once in 11/11. I reference that camp because Arsenal have been a revitalised side since, and adopted a few tactical changes. For example, Gabriel and Saliba have been a lot more aggressive, with an uptick in defensive actions. They also seem to be more aggressive in their high line, and using offside traps.
Luton have also been great for an offside this season, caught in 85% of games this season, including the last 9 consecutive games.
Luton were caught offside 4 times in the reverse fixture. Although Arsenal are expected to dominate, Luton can go from back to front very quickly, and will certainly have their share of attacking play.
Bet1: Odegaard O0.5 Fouls + Luton O0.5 Offsides (1.83, bet365)
Pick 2: Jorginho U0.5 shots
Jorginho hasn’t been a regular starter throughout the season, and there’s a fair chance he gets rested for this one. In the case he doesn’t though, his shot prices have been offered and it’s impossible not to take the value.
The Italian has started the last 5 consecutive games, and has not completed the full 90 in any of them.
In his last 9 starts under Arteta, he has not had even a single shot. Since returning from the training camp in Dubai, Jorginho has had one shot in 510 minutes of football!
From a tactical perspective, Arteta’s team are extremely mechanical, and very rarely opt for low xG shots. Chances are concentrated to attacking players in open play, and the big men from set-pieces – Jorginho fits neither of these descriptions, hence the lack of shots. When Arsenal can sustain pressure, shooting opportunities often open up for Jorginho, however he seems reluctant to shoot from distance.
Against Luton too, I expect most of the shots to be from transitional situations. It’s a tough game for the Hatters, but I don’t think they deploy a traditional low block as most might at the Emirates. Chances should be concentrated to the forwards.
Bet 2: Jorginho U0.5 shots (2.0, bet365)
