6th April Premier League Preview: Luton vs Bournemouth
It was a goals fest last time these sides met, as the Cherries overturned a 3-0 deficit in the second-half to emerge victorious. With Luton still clinging to hope of survival, we can expect yet more entertainment.
Pick 1: Dominic Solanke 4+ Shots (1.91, betway)
Pick 2: BTTS + O2.5 Goals (1.73, bet365)
Pick 3: Lewis Cook O0.5 Fouls + Mengi O0.5 Fouls (1.92, PaddyPower)
Players Out:
Luton Town: Lockyer, Nakamba, Jacob Brown, Dan Potts, Bell, Adebayo, Lokonga, Mads Andersen, Osho, Ogbene, Burke (50%)
Bournemouth: Fredericks, Sinisterra, Mepham (50%), Senesi (50%)
Predicted Line-ups:
Luton Town (3-4-3): Kaminski, Hashioka, Mengi, Kabore, Townsend, Barkley, Mpanzu, Doughty, Clark, Chong, Morris
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Neto, Smith, Senesi, Zabaryni, Kelly, Cook, Christie, Semenyo, Kluivert, Tavernier, Solanke
Pick 1: Dominic Solanke 4+ Shots
I previewed this fixture not too long ago, as these two faced off just 3 weeks ago, and went for a similar selection backing Solanke.
Opposition strikers have been the focus for Luton game’s – I backed Richarlison against Luton last weekend, who didn’t start in the end. Son, the replacement #9, racked up 6 shots, 2 SoT and a goal in his absence. The research here is mostly the same, so you can view that article here.
Solanke got on the scoresheet in the last H2H and I fancy him once again. The Englishman has generally seen an uptick in shots on the road, averaging 3.82 shots / 90 compared to 2.48 at the Vitality.
He’s rakced up 4+ shots in just 6/15, and 3+ in 11/15, the stats suggest this one goes close.
But I’m more taking this selection because of Luton Town – they’ve shipped numerous chances to opposition strikers, particularly at home where the Hatters tend to be a bit more pragmatic in their approach. With results failing to go their way, I expect more intent and desperation, in turn opening up chances on the break for Bournemouth’s attackers.
Bet 1: Dominic Solanke 4+ Shots (1.91, betway)
Pick 2: BTTS + O2.5 Goals
Luton drew a blank against Arsenal at the Emirates, but that isn’t exactly breaking news – most teams do.
What’s impressive, though, is that game broke an 18-game streak in which the Hatters bulged the back of their opponents net. We witnessed a 7-goal thriller last time these two met, and I’m expecting the same. Luton have failed to score just once in fifteen league home fixtures this season, with BTTS + 02.5 landing in 9/15.
Bournemouth too, have been shut out just once in fourteen league games on the road, with BTTS + O2.5 landing in 9/14.
The data and matchup points to a goals-fest – hopefully these two deliver.
Bet 2: BTTS + O2.5 Goals (1.73, bet365)
Pick 3: Lewis Cook O0.5 Fouls + Mengi O0.5 Fouls
Luton have been a magnet for drawing fouls in recent weeks, particularly at home.
- 12 fouls drawn vs Arsenal
- 16 fouls drawn vs Spurs
- 18 fouls drawn vs Forest
- 16 fouls drawn vs Bournemouth
- 20 fouls drawn vs Palace
- 19 fouls drawn vs Aston Villa
Looking into Bournemouth player fouls, Lewis Cook is averaging 1.3 fouls / 90 in midfield, with 1+ foul in 9/12 last games. He made 1 foul in the reverse fixture against Luton, and I like him to make at least another against the Hatters.
Mengi foul prices have been big all season on PaddyPower, and despite shortening a fair margin, is still good value.
The centre-back is averaging 1.26 fouls / game this season, including a foul in 12 of the last 14. He blanked last game against Arsenal, in an extremely poor matchup for targeting CB fouls, given how far back Luton were pinned.
He made 1 foul in the reverse fixture against Bournemouth, so this bet landed in the reverse.
