9th April Champions League Preview: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
Last time these two teams faced off in the UCL, Bayern Munich ran out 10-2 winners on aggregate. But a lot has changed since then, with the German juggernaut seemingly dethroned, whilst Arteta has restored the Gunners status amongst the elites.
Pick 1: Gabriel 0O.5 Fouls + Harry Kane Fouled O0.5 Times (2.0, SkyBet)
Pick 2: Jorginho U0.5 Shots (1.61, bet365)
Pick 3: Saliba O0.5 Tackles + O0.5 Havertz Fouls (1.75, SkyBet)
Predicted Lineups:
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu, Jorginho, Rice, Odegaard, Saka, Havertz, Martinelli
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Ulreich, Kimmich, Upamecano, Kim, Davies, Goretzka, Laimer, Muller, Musiala, Gnabry, Kane
Pick 1: Gabriel 0O.5 Fouls + Harry Kane Fouled O0.5 Times (2.0, SkyBet)
Following three consecutive defeats in January, Arteta took his men to a training camp in Dubai, and since Arsenal have been rejuvenated – posting 11 wins from 13 games. We’ve seen some tactical changes too from the Gunners, most notably in my opinion the aggressiveness of the CB’s – Saliba and Gabriel.
Gabriel has made a foul in 11/13, failing against Brighton and Sheffield United, both comfortable wins away from home. This one should be more closely contested, and I’m intrigued by his matchup with former Spurs captain, Harry Kane.
This will actually be the seventh meeting between Gabriel Magalhaes and Harry Kane, having first faced off in 2020 (when Rob Holding partnered the Brazilian). A lot has changed since then.
In two meeting last season, the stats are:
- Gabriel 3 fouls (and a booking), Harry Kane fouled 2 times.
- Gabriel 2 fouls, Harry Kane fouled 2 times
Given the tactical tweak, I once again expect Gabriel to get very tight, and be aggressive on Kane which hopefully leads to a foul.
Bet 1: Gabriel 0O.5 Fouls + Harry Kane Fouled O0.5 Times
Pick 2: Jorginho U0.5 Shots (1.61, bet365)
Biting the bullet on shorter odds here, but the value is simply undeniable. I wanted to take this price against Luton, but Jorginho was excluded from the starting XI.
It’s a massive game, and the impact of the Italian on this Arsenal side has been undeniably positive, allowing Rice freedom. He should start, it’s a game where Arsenal are expected to have less shots than their average, so it’s a great opportunity to back the Under once again.
The research provided for the Luton game was unnecessary, given the bet was void, but it should be relevant for this game, so you can read that here.
Expanding slightly, Jorginho has had 1 shot in 605 minutes of football, with no shot in his last 10 starts.
Bet 2: Jorginho U0.5 Shots
Pick 3: Saliba O0.5 Tackles + O0.5 Havertz Fouls (1.75, SkyBet)
Building on the point of Arsenal’s CB pairing being more aggressive, I fancy Saliba to make at least a tackle on Tuesday night, which he has done in 10/13 last games.
The games he failed:
- 5-0 vs Palace
- 6-0 vs West Ham
- 6-0 vs Sheffield Utd
The common theme, is Saliba doesn’t make tackles in games Arsenal completely blow out their opposition. Although they come in as favourites, and I fancy them to win, this game should be much tighter than the aforementioned fixtures.
He draws a favourable matchup against Musiala / Harry Kane too, and I think Arsenal tackles are a target here. Although it’s the Bundesliga, Bayern are drawing 22 tackles per game with opposition CBs heavily contributing.
Pairing that with a Havertz foul, which has landed in 28/33 starts in the whole season for Arsenal, averaging 2.02 fouls / 90.
Havertz is the most prolific fouler in this Arsenal side, seeing a slight uptick in fouls at home.
Bet 3: Saliba O0.5 Tackles + O0.5 Havertz Fouls
