13th April Premier League Preview: West Ham vs Fulham
It’s a short turnaround for the Hammers following a dismal display midweek in Germany, compounded with Bowen seemingly ruled out of this clash – Marco Silva comes in here the upper hand.
Pick 1: Calvin Bassey O1.5 Tackles (1.83, SkyBet)
Pick 2: Antonee Robinson O2.5 Tackles (2.25, SkyBet)
Longshot @ 13/1
Players Out
West Ham:- Areola, Bowen, Kalvin Philips, Mavropanos (50%)
Fulham: None!
Predicted Line-ups
West Ham (4-2-3-1): Fabianski, Coufal, Zouma, Aguerd, Emerson, Edson Alvarez, Soucek, Ward-Prowse, Paqueta, Kudus, Antonio
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Castagne, Tosin, Bassey, Robinson, Palhinha, Cairney, Andreas Pereira, Iwobi, Willian, Muniz
Pick 1: Calvin Bassey O1.5 Tackles
With Bowen out, Moyes is set to go with a front three of Paqueta, Antonio and Kudus, three players who draw a lot of tackles and fouls with their directness. I’m targeting Fulham to make some tackles, with a bias over on the left side.
I like the central matchup between Calvin Bassey and Michail Antonio.
The 34-year-old is currently drawing 2.25 tackles / 90 for the season, an increase on Bowen’s 1.42. Antonio will be industrious in his play, chasing loose balls and lost causes, aiming to drag West Ham up the field – he almost incites tackles once he gets far enough.
Despite a tough start to the season, Bassey has looked more assured and confident with Tosin as his partner, having moved over to the right side of central defence. He’s an aggressive player, similar profile to Konate, and has some solid tackle counts since the transition.
The Nigerian has made 2+ tackles in 8/13 with Tosin this season, including two tackles in the reverse fixture against West Ham, which finished 5-0.
Filtering that to away games;
- 2 tackles vs Everton (EFL Cup)
- 2 tackles vs Bournemouth
- 1 tackle vs Man United
- 2 tackles vs Wolves
- 2 tackles vs Sheffield Utd
- 4 tackles vs Nottm Forest
Really consistent numbers, now against West Ham he draws the matchup against Kudus and Antonio, which is really favourable for this market.
Sky have priced player tackles quite generously here, and I’m willing to take advantage.
Bet 1: Calvin Bassey O1.5 Tackles (1.83, SkyBet)
Pick 2: Antonee Robinson O2.5 Tackles
Antonee Robinson should draw the matchup of Kudus, and will have his hands full.
I’m intrigued by this price, even regardless of the matchup it seems great value. He’s averaging 2.55 tackles per game, rising to 2.72 when playing away this season, with 3+ tackles landing in 9/18 on the road. Based on that, you’d expect a fair price to be around 2.0, including margin probably around 1.83/1.9.
2.25 is not exactly mouth-watering value by any stretch, but the matchup is ideal.
These two faced off in December, and it was Fulham who ran out 5-0 comfortable winners. Kudus lasted just 64 minutes before being hooked, but Robinson made 4 tackles, and was dribbled past twice in that time.
All 6 tackle attempts came before the 64th minute, too.
With Bowen out, there is potential for Kudus to also see more of the ball, and have more of a role in dragging West Ham up the field. Without Bowen, Kudus recently drew 2 tackles from his opponent Grimaldo midweek, although that was a game entirely dominated by Leverkusen. Despite the blowout last time these two London sides met, it should be closer, more competitive as we get to the business end of the season with still a lot to play for.
Bet 2: Antonee Robinson O2.5 Tackles (2.25, SkyBet)
Longshot @ 13/1
Building on the aforementioned pick, I certainly see ladder potential. Robinson attempted 6 tackles in 64 minutes last H2H between these two, if Kudus / Robinson can last the full 90 each on the same flank, these is massive opportunity to hit the high lines.
Robinson has shown an affinity to duel, he’s got the physicality and strength to compete with Kudus so I doubt he backs off too much.
- Robinson 5+ tackles
- Robinson 1+ Foul
Double @ 13/1 with SkyBet
