18th April Europa League Preview: Atalanta vs Liverpool

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It’s been a tough week for the Reds, after being dismantled by Thursdays’ opponents at home, that was followed up with a 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace – the first league defeat for Liverpool at home since November 2022. Klopp’s Liverpool have a knack of overcoming three-goal deficits in Europe though – you cannot write them off just yet.

Pick 1: Liverpool to Win + O1.5 Match Goals (1.80, WilliamHill)

Pick 2: MacAllister O0.5 Shots + Atalanta O7.5 Goal-kicks (1.72, bet365)

Long(er) shot @ 3/1

Predicted Line-ups

Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Musso, de Roon, Djimsiti, Hien, Zappacosta, Pasalic, Ederson, Ruggeri, Koopmeiners, De Detelaere, Scamacca

Liverpool (4-3-3): Allison, Trent, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson, Endo, MacAllister, Szoboszlai, Salah, Nunez, Diaz

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Pick 1: Liverpool to Win + O1.5 Match Goals

Considering Atalanta will still progress in the Europa League if they lose by a 2-goal margin at home, I’m interested in Liverpool’s price to win around 1.65 with most books.

Although the Reds have lost their last two, being kept scoreless, the chances have still been there. They created 2.6 xG against Atalanta in the first leg, and 2.8 xG against Palace to no avail. I fancy a bit of regression in Bergamo, and for Liverpool to at least make a game of it.

I can really see this game escalating into a shootout, too. Atalanta have proven they have the tools to hurt Liverpool on the break, but you simply cannot write off Liverpool just yet. The most likely scoreline in my opinion is a 3-0, 2-0 or 2-1 result in favour of Liverpool.

Bet 1: Liverpool to Win + O1.5 Match Goals (1.80, WilliamHill)

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Pick 2: MacAllister O0.5 Shots + Atalanta O7.5 Goal-kicks 

These stats landed in the reverse fixture, and given the context of the tie, I fancy them again.

MacAllister had just the one shot at Anfield, out of Liverpool’s total tally of 19, but he’s been pulling the trigger consistently. The Argentinian has had a shot in each of his last 11 appearances, at an average of 1.42 per 90 minutes.

Although that average is cut to 1.12 shots / 90 when filtering to away games, he’s had a shot in nine of the last ten on the road – failing only in a 60 minute appearance at the Emirates. MacAllisters’ average increases when excluding the start of the season, which saw him played in a more defensive role.

Atalanta were forced into 13 goal-kicks in the reverse fixture, almost double the necessary line here. I think there is real value in this market.

The last twelve Liverpool opponents have had 8+ goal-kicks. Atalanta goal-kicks in their last 5 games:

• 10 GKs vs Hellas Verona
• 13 GKs vs Liverpool
• 10 GKs vs Cagliara
• 7 GKs vs Fiorentina
• 14 GKs vs Napoli

The game is set up for Liverpool to dominate, and given the absolute need for goals, we could see play being quite forced. Potential for a lot of hopeful long-balls forward, crosses into the box and long shots. Especially with Trent set to return to the starting XI, Liverpool should be able to exert a solid amount of control and pin Atalanta back into their defensive third, as we saw in the first leg.

Bet 2: MacAllister O0.5 Shots + Atalanta O7.5 Goal-kicks (1.72, bet365)

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Long(er) shot @ 3/1

The longer shot for this game comes as an extension of Pick 2.

• MacAllister O1.5 Shots
• Atalanta O9.5 Goal-kicks

As long as Liverpool can keep belief that a turnaround is possible, I think these have a real chance. Data looks solid, paired with the context of the gamestate.

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