20th April Premier League Preview: Wolves vs Arsenal
Following a midweek dumping from Europe at the hands of Bayern Munich, the Gunners now face a trip to the Midlands in search for vital points in this seasons’ three-way, down-to-the-wire title race.
Pick 1: Kilman O49.5 Passes (1.83, bet365)
Players Out
Wolves: Pedro Neto, Dawson, Bellegarde, Ait-Nouri (50%), Semedo, Cunha (25%), Hwang (25%)
Arsenal: Timber
Predicted Line-ups
Wolves (3-4-3): Sa, Santiago Bueno, Kilman, Toti, Hugo Bueno, Lemina, Joao Gomes, Doherty, Tommy Doyle, Ait-Nouri, Sarabia
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko, Rice, Odegaard, Havertz, Saka, Jesus, Trossard
Pick 1: Kilman O49.5 Passes
With Dawson seemingly set to miss this fixture, we could see Kilman start at the centre of a back three. Dawson has missed the last six straight games, and Kilman has recorded pass counts of:
- 71 vs Fulham
- 56 vs Coventry
- 63 vs Aston Villa
- 63 vs Burnley
- 70 vs West Ham
- 71 vs Nott’m Forest
Granted, Arsenal are a much more difficult opponent than most teams mentioned, but they have been allowing opposition players to clear 50 passes regularly, particularly CB’s. Having such a packed fixture schedule, we’ve seen a less intense press from Arsenal, which has led to some quite even possession stats.
Recently for example, in the last seven games, Arsenal have failed to exceed 60% possession. In this stretch, opposition pass counts have been high:
- Eric Dier – 76, De Ligt – 61
- Pau Torres – 77, Diego Carlos 57
- Lewis Dunk – 102, Van Hecke – 75
- Mengi – 37, Hashioka – 56
In the reverse H2H against Arsenal at the Emirates, Kilman made 54 passes. Arsenal did, however, take an early 2-goal lead. Despite a poor result in Germany, they are still heavily favoured to grab three points from Molineux, and a positive gamestate is likely.
If Wolves take the lead, this bet is pretty much over. However, with Cunha out, Neto out, Hwang having his minutes managed, Wolves are extremely short up front, and Arsenal have a good chance of keeping a clean sheet. With Kilman moving to the centre of a defensive trio, his pass ceiling is increased, and so I definitely see the value. It’s a fair risk, but I’m willing to accept it for this one.
Bet 1: Kilman O49.5 Passes (1.83, bet365)
