4th May Premier League Preview: Man City vs Wolves
Man City have lost just three games in the Premier League this season – one of which was masterminded by Gary O’Neil, who stole a 2-1 victory at Molineux despite having just three shots in the match (helped by a Ruben Dias OG). Coming into this fixture, however, Wolves are given less than a 5% chance of victory according to bookies, and it’s set to be a long Saturday night for the Wolfpack.
Pick 1: De Bruyne O0.5 First Half Shots + O2.5 Match Shots (1.8, bet365)
Pick 2: Semedo O29.5 Passes (1.83, bet365)
Players Out
Man City: Ederson (25%), Ruben Dias (75%), Foden (75%)
Wolves: Dawson, Chiwone, Pedro Neto, Noha Lemina, Santiago Bueno (25%), Ait-Nouri (50%), Bellegarde (50%)
Predicted Lineups
Man City: Ortega, Walker, Dias, Gvardiol, Stones, Rodri, Bernardo, De Bruyne, Foden, Grealish, Haaland
Wolves: Sa, Semedo, Kilman, Toti, Doherty, Traore, Joao Gomes, Lemina, Hugo Bueno, Hwang, Cunha
Pick 1: De Bruyne O0.5 First Half Shots + O2.5 Match Shots
De Bruyne have shots have shortened a fair bit on bet365, over 2.5 shots opened at 1.83, which was a fantastic price. With that price long gone, let’s look to take advantage of the new half-markets to claw back some of that value.
De Bruyne is currently averaging 3.72 shots per 90 minutes, only behind Haaland (4.49 / 90) and Foden (4.01 / 90), and has landed 3+ shots in 10/14 since returning from injury. His four failures are:
- Arsenal (0 shots)
- Liverpool (2 shots)
- Luton (2 shots)
- Chelsea (1 shot)
But the matchup against Wolves is more appealing to back the Belgian to pull the trigger. Mathematically, Wolves have nothing to play for in the last few games of the domestic campaign, and have bee hindered with defensive injuries. Because of that, they’ve allowed results to deteriorate, and opponents have hit some notable shot counts.
Bournemouth racked up 21 shots, Arsenal 24, Forest 18 shots all in Wolves’ last four games.
Wolves has been a happy hunting ground for De Bruyne, having scored four goals in a single game in the 21/22 season. Man City have it all to play for still, and the Belgian has been racking up shots in recent weeks, with 3+ shots landing in each of the last six starts.
Bet 1: De Bruyne O0.5 First Half Shots + O2.5 Match Shots (1.8, bet365)
Pick 2: Semedo O29.5 Passes
Santiago Bueno is a massive doubt coming into this fixture, having been taken off at half-time against Bournemouth with a thigh injury. Although O’Neil played down it’s severity, hoping the Uruguayan might be back for this fixture, although it seems unlikely his return beckons.
Wolves have been tentative with rushing players back, and have been careful with managing the minutes of Hwang, Cunha, Ait-Nouri and Mario Lemina. Considering there is nothing really to play for, it seems like Santiago Bueno might be afforded more time to recover, which in turn would lead to Nelson Semedo filling in as the right-sided centre back, which he has done so on a few occasions in the absence of Craig Dawson.
When starting as the right centre back, Semedo has:
- 48 passes vs Burnley
- 63 passes vs Luton
Bueno came off at half-time against Bournemouth for Doherty – which in turn saw the Irish international replace Semedo as the wingback, as the latter dropped into a deeper centre back role. Semedo was on 14 passes in the first-half, and finished on 51 passes having made 37 passes since the switch.
Regardless, Semedo is over this line already this season against Man City in the home fixture (33 passes), and against Arsenal at the Emirates (37 passes) despite playing as a wingback in both.
Considering he is likely to feature as a centre back, this line looks too low, regardless of the matchup.
Bet 2: Semedo O29.5 Passes (1.83, bet365)
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
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