5th May Premier League Preview: Chelsea vs West Ham


Stamford Bridge hosts the second East v West London derby this week, as the Hammers make the short journey over to Chelsea. Having convincingly eased past Spurs midweek, the Blues leapfrogged West Ham in the Premier League standings, and still have a game in hand to close the gap on the European spots.

Pick 1: Badiashile O1.5 Tackles (2.2, Skybet)

Pick 2: Caicedo O1.5 Fouls (1.91, Skybet)

Pick 3: Emerson Palmeiri O2.5 Tackles (1.91, Skybet)

Report: West Ham 3 Chelsea 1 | News | Official Site | Chelsea Football Club

Players Out

Chelsea: Fofana, Lavia, Enzo Fernandez, Ugochukwu, Reece James, Malo Gusto, Chukwuemeka, Thiago Silva, Disasi, Robert Sanchez, Chilwell, Colwill (25%), Sterling (25%), Nkunku (25%)

West Ham: Aguerd, George Earthy (50%), Mavropanos (75%)

Predicted Line-ups

Chelsea (4-2-3-1):  Petrovic, Gilchrist, Chalobah, Badiashile, Cucurella, Caicedo, Gallagher, Madueke, Cole Palmer, Mudryk, Jackson

West Ham (4-2-3-1): Areola, Coufal, Zouma, Mavropanos, Emerson, Alvarez, Soucek, Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus, Antonio


Pick 1: Badiashile O1.5 Tackles 

As Pochettino continues to contend with an injury crisis, Badiashile is set to partner Chalobah at the back for the third successive game.

Badiashile has started just 15 games this season as a centre-half, and is over this line in 7/15. On the face of it, this price of just over evens probably looks around fair value. But I really like the matchup for the Frenchman against West Ham.

Antonio is set to lead the line, with Kudus, Bowen and Paqueta starting too.

I’ve previously mentioned the appeal at targeting opposition CB’s for tackles against West Ham, mostly because of Antonio. He holds the ball up, and tends to dribble straight at defenders in an attempt to drag his side up the field. He generally invites tackles once he gets far enough (hence his 2.43 dispossessions per 90 minutes), which is good for this selection.

With the added threat of Kudus and Bowen, who are extremely direct and always looking to get in behind, Badiashile should be able to contest plenty of duels, and two tackles is easily low enough to back here.

Some recent centre back tackle counts vs West Ham:

  • Van de Ven and Romero – 3 tackles each
  • Kilman, Toti Gomes and Santiago Bueno each made 2+ tackles
  • Calvin Bassey 4 tackles, Tosin 1 tackle
  • Richards, Andersen and Clyne each made 2+ tackles
  • Quansah 3 tackles, Van Dijk 1 tackle

West Ham have drawn some massive tackle counts recently, including 39 from Palace, 26 tackles for Fulham and 35 tackles for Wolves in the last six games. Hopefully something similar is in order, and Badiashile is involved.

Bet 1: Badiashile O1.5 Tackles (2.2, Skybet)


Pick 2: Caicedo O1.5 Fouls

Caicedo’s first appearance for Chelsea came in a 30′ minute appearance off the bench at the London Stadium. It was an afternoon to forget for the Ecuadorian, as he conceded a penalty late on, with the Hammers emerging 3-1 victors. In that game, he made 2 fouls in his short period on the pitch.

I expect him to have his hands full once again in this clash, as he matches up against the trio of Bowen, Kudus and Paqueta. These are the three most fouled players for West Ham:

  • Kudus: 2.42 fouls drawn per game
  • Paqueta: 1.82 fouls drawn per game
  • Bowen: 1.31 fouls drawn per game

In the absence of Enzo Fernandez, Caicedo has played every minute of football of available – he pretty much has to with the number of injuries Chelsea currently have. 90 minutes against the three aforementioned players should give him enough duels.

Bet 2: Caicedo O1.5 Fouls (1.91, Skybet)


Pick 3: Emerson Palmeiri O2.5 Tackles

Final selection, and I’m backing the former Chelsea man to be busy on the defensive front.

The Italian is averaging 2.89 tackles per 90 minutes under David Moyes this season, and his cleared this line in each of the last six in all competitions, including against Liverpool and Spurs.

He’s over this line in 11/20 on the road this season, but has made at least two tackles in 18/20, which is a fantastic record. He has amongst the highest tackle success rate in the league (68%).

What draws me to this selections is Chelsea’s predicted lineup, with Madueke and Cole Palmer in. Against Spurs, Madueke and Cole Palmer often interchangeably popped up on the right wing, doubling up on Emerson Royal. It was a tough night for the Brazilian, who was heavily involved on the defensive front.

He managed just 2 tackles, but was dribbled past 6 times – a 25% tackle success rate. In the previous game, Digne managed 4 tackles (66% success rate), Ake made 2 tackles against Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final. Prior, Mykolenko managed 2 tackles but was dribbled past 3 times.

Opposition left backs have been heavily involved with Palmer and Madueke, and Emerson should be the same. Given his fairly decent tackle success rate for the season, if the chances for tackles are there, hopefully he has another efficient game.

Bet 3: Emerson Palmeiri O2.5 Tackles (1.91, Skybet)


Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!

If you’re a fan of the content, consider becoming a member!