11th May Premier League Preview: West Ham vs Luton
Luton have battled incredibly hard this season, but there is a chance their relegation is confirmed very soon. If Nottingham Forest achieve more points this gameweek than Luton, the Hatters will be condemned back to the Championship. They travel to the London Stadium to try and reverse a torrid run of form, although the Hammers poor run has been eerily similar.
Pick 1: Barkley O0.5 Shots on Target (1.83, Skybet)
Pick 2: Lokonga O1.5 Fouls Drawn (2.1, PaddyPower)
Players Out
West Ham: Kalvin Philips, Aguerd (25%), Mavropanos (75%)
Luton: Lockyer, Issa Kabore, Nakamba, Jacob Brown, Bell, Potts, Andersen, Ogbene
Predicted Line-ups
West Ham: Areola, Coufal, Zouma, Mavropanos, Emerson, Soucek, Alvarez, Kudus, Paqueta, Bowen, Antonio
Luton: Kaminski, Burke, Mengi, Osho, Onyedinma, Lokonga, Barkley, Doughty, Chong, Morris, Adebayo
Pick 1: Barkley O0.5 Shots on Target
Ross Barkley is averaging the most shots for Luton this season, with 2.4 per game. Although that shortens to 2.16 when playing on the road, Barkley has managed a shot on target in each of the last five away games – against Wolves, Man City, Arsenal, Spurs and Bournemouth. Five quite difficult matchups.
West Ham have been on an appalling run of form, without a win in six, having shipped 2+ goals in five of those recent games. Since the Hammers announced their plans to part ways with Moyes, performances levels have dropped off a cliff, and Rob Edwards will see this opportunity as a very realistic chance to gain some crucial points in the quest for Premier League survival.
A shot on target has landed for Barkley in 9 of the last 10 away games, and 10/14 away league games in total. The price of 1.83 with Skybet looks incredibly high, especially in comparison to the rest of the market. Bet365 have this market at 1.61, even Unibet are shorter than Sky at 1.75 (which is a surprise, given they are normally top price on player shot markets).
Bet 1: Barkley O0.5 Shots on Target (1.83, Skybet)
Pick 2: Lokonga O1.5 Fouls Drawn
Rob Edwards has implied that risks in the final two games of the season, and Luton need points on the board. Having returned from a lengthy spell on the sidelines, Lokonga has been thrust into the deep end, having played 71 minutes on his return, followed by the full 90 minutes in back-to-back games against Wolves and Everton. His importance to the Hatters cannot be understated, reflected in his minutes played.
In those last two games, Lokonga has drawn three fouls in each of them. Prior to his injury, he strung together 9 consecutive league starts, and drew 2+ fouls in 7/9. Despite a broken season plagued with injuries, the midfielder has drawn 2+ fouls in 9/14 in isolation, which makes this a good value single.
West Ham are a solid matchup for the Belgian international to draw fouls – midfielders Paqueta, Soucek and Edson Alvarez have committed the most infringements this season under Moyes, with 1.62, 1.36 and 1.30 fouls committed per 90, respectively.
Stats look goes, as does the matchup. Lokonga should be in for some heavy minutes too, barring any mitigating circumstances.
Bet 2: Lokonga O1.5 Fouls Drawn (2.1, PaddyPower)
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
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