14th May Premier League Preview: Tottenham vs Man City

Taking points off Man City would be doing bitter rivals Arsenal a massive favour in the title race, but Ange has downplayed concerns that Spurs will gift their opponents points. It was a cracker last time these two met in the league – a 3-3 draw at the Etihad, and more entertainment is on the cards in London.

Pick 1: Bernardo Silva O0.5 Fouls (1.8, bet365)

Pick 2: Romero O65.5 Passes (1.8, WilliamHill)

Pick 3: Man City to Commit 10+ Fouls (1.8, PaddyPower)

Longshot @ 6/1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester City FA Cup Preview: The immoveable object - Cartilage Free Captain

Players Out

Tottenham: Udogie, Richarlison, Forster, Sessegnon, Werner, Solomon, Ben Davies, Bissouma

Man City: Ake (25%), Grealish (50%)

Predicted Line-ups

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Vicario, Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Emerson Royal, Pape Sarr, Bentancur, Kulusevski, Maddison, Brennan Johnson, Son

Man City (3-2-4-1): Ederson, Walker, Dias, Gvardiol, Rodri, Stones, Bernardo Silva, Foden, De Bruyne, Doku, Haaland

Pick 1: Bernardo Silva O0.5 Fouls

Bernardo Silva is averaging just 0.65 fouls per game this season, which likely explains the big price here, but the Portuguese midfielder sees a notable uptick in fouls in bigger games. When his defensive involvement is high, Bernardo has been a regular for committing infringements.

Against the traditional ‘Big 6’ this season, Bernardo has committed a foul in 11/11 in all comps! City have played Spurs twice already this season, and Silva was massively involved:

3 fouls vs Spurs, home fixture in the Premier League
3 fouls vs Spurs, away fixture in the FA Cup

Those stats make a price of 1.8 for a single foul look incredibly good value, and the 9/1 for 3+ fouls also appeals, given it has landed in 2/2 H2H’s this season.

Pep has trusted Bernardo with heavy minutes in big games – he played 75+ minutes in each of the last four, as City need to maintain a flawless record to secure yet another Premier League title. It is perhaps the toughest game for them in the run in, so Bernardo might once again be expected to last long in this clash.

Bet 1: Bernardo Silva O0.5 Fouls (1.8, bet365)

Pick 2: Romero O65.5 Passes

Taking this price with WilliamHill, although nearly an identical price is set by bet365 – I like the security of requiring one less pass for the same odds.

Regardless of the context of the game, the approach from Spurs will not change. Ange has been consistent in the sense that he is not focussed on outcomes, or results, but more about instilling the right process and ideas in his players. Because of that, no game is deadwood, it is always a chance to work. Spurs’ approach will be to play out from the back, look to get a foothold in the game and have spells of possession – they did that in both fixtures against City this season already.

Romero only featured in one of those, the FA Cup game, and managed 82 passes from right centre back. In the prior H2H, Emerson Royal deputised in the absence of his teammate, and racked up 87 passes in a six-goal thriller.

Haaland is expected to start up front, which is also good for backing opposition passes. His press is nowhere near as intense compared to Julian Alvarez. It was indeed the Argentine who started in the previous H2H in the FA Cup, which probably worked to take a few passes away from Romero.

Romero has hit this line against City already this season, and against Arsenal too at home. Bear in mind against Arsenal, he basically played as a striker for large parts of the second-half. He hit 76 against Liverpool – a difficult matchup for CB passes given the press, and 68 against Chelsea. Really like this line, think City are a good matchup too for CB passes, especially if they can take an early lead. They don’t press as high as other teams, which leaves the centre backs as the free option.

Romero will be the primary receiver of the ball from the right-footed Vicario – so goal-kicks for Spurs would be extremely useful.

Bet 2: Romero O54.5 Passes (1.72, Ladbrokes)

Pick 3: Man City to Commit 10+ Fouls

In the two matchups this season, Man City have made:

14 fouls, home fixture in the league
19 fouls, away fixture in the FA Cup

Spurs have drawn at least 10 fouls in the last eight games straight, and in 18/20 home games this season in all comps. The only teams to fail were Burnley in the FA Cup, and Man Utd in the opening home game for Spurs this season.

This line looks incredibly low on the surface, given it has comfortably landed in both H2H games between these two this season. There are a lot of players in that Spurs expected XI who are good for drawing fouls – Maddison, Son, Kulusevski, Brennan Johnson, Porro, which makes this one to target.

Bet 3: Tottenham O11.5 Free-kicks (1.72, bet365)

Longshot @ 6/1

This 6/1 shot has landed in both H2H games so far this season.

Bernardo Silva O1.5 Fouls
Tottenham O15.5 Free-Kicks

In the FA Cup game at the London Stadium, City made 19 fouls and were flagged three times – a total of 22 Spurs free-kicks. Something similar would be absolutely ideal, but I expect Tottenham to see a fair bit of the ball, look to play out from deep which is ideal for all three of these selections.

Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!

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