19th May Premier League Preview: Man City vs West Ham
It’s yet another title race going right down to the wire, with it all decided on the final gameweek of the season. Man City will know exactly what needs to be done – it’s a familiar situation for Pep Guardiola’s men chasing a fourth straight Premier League title. But can the Hammers shock the world and pull off a result?
Pick 1: Bernardo Silva O0.5 Shots on Target (2.1, bet365)
Pick 2: Gvardiol O1.5 Shots (2.15, WilliamHill)
Pick 3: Rodri to Score or Be Carded (3.3, PaddyPower)
Players Out
🔵Man City: Ederson, De Bruyne (75%)
🟤West Ham: Kalvin Philips, Aguerd (25%), Mavropanos (50%)
Predicted Line-ups
🔵Man City: Ortega, Walker, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol, Rodri, Kovacic, Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Foden, Haaland
🟤West Ham: Areola, Coufal, Zouma, Ogbonna, Emerson, Alvarez, Soucek, Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus, Antonio
Pick 1: Bernardo Silva O0.5 Shots on Target
In recent weeks, Pep Guardiola has reverted back to his trusted 4-2-3-1 formation in attack, as Doku and Grealish have fallen out of favour. It means we should see a forward line of Haaland, De Bruyne, Foden and Bernardo Silva. A more traditional back four would put Kyle Walker on the same side as Bernardo – a fullback who overlaps, which in turn should see Bernardo in the half-spaces. Against a low-block like West Ham, this should be apparent, and Silva should have a key attacking role, and often pop up in the box.
Expecting Bernardo to take up great attacking positions to have shots, all we require is for a decent enough chance to fall to the Portuguese, and for him to be efficient and clinical with his chance. There should be ample chances for Man City at home, who will be looking to assert their dominance and claim the title. Man City had 29 shots in the reverse fixture in London, Bernardo Silva only contributed to one of those, but he made it count with a goal.
In that game, he started in a deeper role alongside Rodri. Should he have more of an attacking job in this game, this price looks massive, and shouldn’t be odds against. Another potential angle is for Silva to have two or more shots, which is priced at 2.25 with WilliamHill.
Bet 1: Bernardo Silva O0.5 Shots on Target (2.1, Bet365)
Pick 2: Gvardiol O1.5 Shots
Sticking with the idea of expecting a barrage of shots from Man City, left-back Gvardiol has had an eye for goal of late, and I fancy him to once again occupy some advanced zones.
The Croatian managed two shots against West Ham in the reverse fixture, and is a good player to target against low blocks. He had two shots against the deep-lying defence of Luton, Brentford, Crystal Palace (twice) and West Ham. There are many potential ways we get over this line, as Gvardiol has shown an affinity to shoot in a variety of situations. From his 31 shots in the league this season:
- 15 were from corners, 16 from open play
- 15 were with his right foot, 9 left, 6 headers and 1 other body part
- 19 shots were inside the box, 12 outside
He’s scored 5 goals in his last eight games – not bad for a centre back playing as a left back. His uptick in form should see him have a solid minutes floor, to maximise the value in this selection. Against West Ham in the reverse league fixture, Gvardiol managed a shot from City’s nine corners, and also another longshot from open play. Something similar would be absolutely ideal.
Bet 2: Gvardiol O1.5 Shots (2.15, WilliamHill)
Pick 3: Rodri to Score or Be CardedÂ
Rodri is the most important player for Pep Guardiola, and has been for some time. The Spanish midfielder has a knack for picking up goals at incredibly important times – the winner in the Champions League final is perhaps the most natural example that springs to mind. But this season, Rodri has been one of City’s biggest threats against low-blocks. His goals have come against Burnley (2), Sheffield Utd (2), Chelsea (2) and Aston Villa in the league – most of which were in situations where opponents were defending deep.
Similarly, his only goal in the Champions League this season came against Red Star Belgrade at the Etihad. Massive game, title on the line against a low block – there’s a good chance Rodri is involved.
As a bit of a safety net, I really like the concept of Rodri getting booked, which he managed to do in the reverse fixture. West Ham have the potential to raise tensions at the Etihad – Bowen and Kudus have the pace in behind to cause problems. They are are incredibly proficient at drawing fouls, and Rodri is known for his cynical fouls. He has toned down slightly this season, having only racked up eight cautions, but the potential is there.
Paqueta, Bowen and Kudus are drawing the most fouls for West Ham, and should find duels directly against Rodri. Really like these odds available on PaddyPower, think it’s setup perfectly for Rodri to be the star man, and get his plaudits for another incredible season.
Bet 3: Rodri to Score or Be Carded (3.3, PaddyPower)
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
If you’re a fan of the content, consider becoming a member!
