29th May Conference League Final: Olympiakos vs Fiorentina
There are a couple of narratives at play here, which has set up an exciting Europa Conference League final. Fiorentina will be looking to atone for the disappointment of last year after losing in the Conference League final to West Ham, and deliver silverware back to Florence for the first time in over 25 years. That isn’t an easy task though, as they face giant-killers Olympiakos, who play without fear, and should be buoyed after eliminating Premier League high-flyers Aston Villa. Olympiakos come in with the advantage too, in the sense that the final is played in their home city – Athens, so they might view it as a home fixture, as opposed to a European final.
So much at stake for the two extremely worthy finalists, so this game is set up to be an absolute cracker.
Pick 1: Both Teams to Score (1.85, Betway)
Pick 2: Arthur Melo U64.5 Passes (1.83, bet365)
Pick 3: Chiquinho O0.5 Shots + Both Teams to Receive a Card (1.71, bet365)
Predicted Line-ups
Blessed with a deep squad and minimal injuries, Fiorentina manager Vincenzo Italiano has persisted with constant rotation all season. Key players in Nico Gonzalez, Arthur Melo and Kouame were afforded a rest in their previous game against Cagliari, so could be in line for a return. On the side of the Greeks, there are no injuries for manager Jose Luis Mendilibar to contend with, so we could see a similar eleven to that which knocked out Aston Villa.
đź”´Olympiakos (4-2-3-1): Tzolakis, Rodinei, Retsos, Carmi, Quini, Iborra, Hezze, Fortounis, Chiquinho, Podence, El Kaabi
🟣Fiorentina (4-2-3-1): Terracciano, Dodo, Milenkovic, Martinez, Biraghi, Arthur Melo, Mandragora, Nico Gonzalez, Beltran, Kouame, N’Zola
Pick 1: Both Teams to Score
Both teams have been incredibly free-scoring this season, and despite being a final, I really like the chance of it being a goal-fest once again.
The scoreline was 2-1 last year in the Conference League final, which Fiorentina fans will remember all too well. Both teams have scored in each of the last 8 games for La Viola. Defensive records have not been anything to write home about recently, which doesn’t provide any encouragement when the opposition striker is in the form he is in. Ayoub El Kaabi is averaging 0.97 goals / 90 this season in all competitions, and announced himself to the world with five goals in two legs against Unai Emery’s Aston Villa. It was a clinical masterpiece, and Fiorentina defenders will have to be wary of his form and goalscoring prowess.
Olympiakos have been the dark horses of the competition, despite being far from watertight defensively. They managed to shut out Aston Villa at home, but domestically they conceded 36 goals from 36 games, currently placed 3rd in the Greek Super League. Fiorentina have not struggled for goals this season, having scored in eleven straight games. They have have also managed the fifth-most goals in Serie A this season, finding the net 58 times with still one more domestic game to play.
Both teams are potent attacking units, although have struggled defensively at times this season. It points to a high-scoring contest, and a backable price for both to score is definitely appealing.
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score (1.85, Betway)
Pick 2: Arthur Melo U64.5 PassesÂ
Despite generally conceding possession, Olympiakos have an extremely direct, high pressing style of play which makes settled possession scarce. Because of that, I like the look of passing unders, and Arthur Melo is being offered by bet365. The former Liverpool man is averaging 40 passes per game for the season, rising to 66 passes per game when completing the full 90. However, he hasn’t seen out the full 90 in any of his last 13 appearances. I mentioned previously the depth of squad that Fiorentina have to offer, and Arthur is typically subbed out for Madragora or Maxime Lopez.
Arthur Melo has not completed the full 90 minutes in any Conference League knockout games so far, and has pass counts of:
- 74 passes vs Plzen (Away, 79 minutes)
- 60 passes vs Plzen (Home, 60 minutes)
- 41 passes vs Club Brugge (Home, 70 minutes)
- 38 passes vs Club Brugge (Away, 71 minutes)
Against a high-energy team like Olympiakos, I think there is a good chance he gets hooked early, and struggles to find the time and space on the ball anyway.
Bet 2: Arthur Melo U64.5 Passes (1.83, bet365)
Pick 3: Chiquinho O0.5 Shots + Both Teams to Receive a Card
Playing as an attacking midfielder for the Greek side, Chiquinho has notched a shot in 17/18 starts this season. That includes a shot in 7/7 Conference League games, at an average of 1.38 shots per 90 minutes. He’s got an incredible record, which makes his shot price really stand out. Chances can be expected at either end with how both teams play, so I really fancy his chances tonight.
To bump the odds a bit, I’ve added both teams to receive a card, which has landed in:
- 7/8 Conference League games for Olympiakos
- 13/14 Conference League games for Fiorentina
Hit rate is incredible, contextually, we should also see cards towards the back-end of the game, too. We also get Artur Soares Dias overseeing this game as referee who has shows 64 yellows and 6 red cards this season in the Portuguese league.
Bet 3: Chiquinho O0.5 Shots + Both Teams to Receive a Card (1.71, bet365)
Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!
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