16th June Euro Preview: Poland vs Netherlands

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Group D kicks off in Hamburg, as Poland and Netherlands face-off in what should, in theory, be a one-sided contest. Poland already come into the group as outsiders to qualify, but will also have to compete without talisman Robert Lewandowski for (at least) the first group stage game. With Arkadiusz Milik also out of the competition, the Poles are looking light up top, so it’s set to be one way traffic. Netherlands should be full of confidence coming into this one, with back-to-back 4-0 victories in June friendlies – Van Dijk was on the scoresheet in both, and is set for a massive role as commander of the Dutch defence.

Pick 1: Netherlands to Win + Under 4.5 Goals (1.8, bet365)

Pick 2: van Dijk O0.5 Shots + Netherlands Most Corners (2.1, bet365)

Predicted Line-ups: 

Both sides are beset with injuries. For Poland, Lewandowski, Matty Cash and Milik are all out. Maatsen and Zirkzee were recently called up by Koeman to replace the injured Koopmeiners and Frenkie de Jong – it’s left the Dutch looking a bit light in midfield.

🔴Poland (5-3-2): Szczesny, Bednarek, Dawidowski, Kiwior, Frankowski, Moder, Slisz, Zeilinski, Zalewski, Swiderski, Urbanski

🟠Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen, Dumfries, de Vrij, van Dijk, Ake, Reijnders, Schouten, Veerman, Xavi Simons, Depay, Gakpo

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Pick 1: Netherlands to Win + Under 4.5 Goals

Netherlands should be full of confidence after really positive performances and results in recent June friendlies. Koeman has chopped and changed with Dutch formation and tactics, but it seems a bit more certain now – a 4-3-3 seems best. Looking into Netherlands’ results since the World Cup, they have a record of 9 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in friendlies, Nations League and Euro Qualifying games. The games they failed to win were France (twice), Italy, Germany and Croatia – all higher ranking nations. When the Dutch played a lesser team, where they were overwhelming favourites, they were clinical.

Poland fit the description, and Netherlands come in as decent favourites to kick off their campaign with a win. Considering the absence of both Lewandowski and Milik, Poland are set to struggle at the sharp end of the field. Netherlands managed two clean sheets in June friendlies, and they have an extremely strong defence on paper led by van Dijk. Expecting Dutch dominance, I fancy them to take the victory.

To boost the odds, I like the idea of backing a lower-scoring game. In those 14 games since the World Cup, Netherlands have seen 5+ goals in just 2/14. One of those was in a 6-0 drubbing against Gibraltar, and the other a 3-2 shootout against Italy. I expect Poland to low-block, be pragmatic and not ship goals. At the other end of the field, they are likely to struggle – a Netherlands clean sheet would be absolutely ideal.

Bet 1: Netherlands to Win + Under 4.5 Goals (1.8, bet365)

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Pick 2: van Dijk O0.5 Shots + Netherlands Most Corners 

I backed van Dijk to be the top goalscorer for Netherlands, and he’s impressed in the June friendlies with two goals in two games. He should be full of confidence, but I like his shot prices for the matchup against Poland. As mentioned, Poland will be pragmatic, probably setting up in a deep block. With Netherlands dominating their attacking third, corners and set-pieces become incredibly important – van Dijk is the obvious target from such situations.

Since the World Cup, Poland have contested the majority of their games against lower-ranking nations – they had a relatively calm qualifying group. In the most recent June friendlies, Poland conceded more corners than they managed against both Turkey and Ukraine.

• Turkey: 4 corners for, 8 corners against
• Ukraine: 6 corners for, 9 corners against

Again, the expectation is for the Dutch to dominate and see a majority of the ball around the Poland penalty area.

Bet 2: van Dijk O0.5 Shots + Netherlands Most Corners (2.1, bet365)

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Thanks for reading, and best of luck if tailing!

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