19th March Bookings Model Updates
With the international break upon us, it’s the perfect time to take a step back after a very busy period in the football calendar. It has been just under two months of tracking the the progress of this bookings model, with data from 552 European domestic games.
We’re approaching the season run-in after this two-week hiatus, which in itself presents a unique challenge. However, in this write-up I want to try and identify a strategy to attack the upcoming period, using the data already gathered. Before looking into that, however, lets start with the…
Weekend Results
Now, I was away this week, so struggled with sharing the predictions. I managed to get something out for all the games (albeit quite late), but couldn’t manage an accompanying stake for the highlighted high-value games. Apologies for that if you are in the group, but it’s the best I could do. Anyway, back to the results.
Full results can be viewed here – Bookings Model Tracking – Week 8 (1)
76 games this week:
- 42 winners (55.2% win-rate)
- 59 unders (77.7%)
- 1.16% difference between total bookings predicted, and total bookings shown.
A week on the lower end of the win-rate range, but still solid nevertheless.
A Strategy
74% of the time, the model has suggested to play the under – 64% of those have proven successful with wins. It has been less effective at predicting overs, with just a 48.2% win-rate, but the sample size is 141 games – still quite small. Because of that, the focus going forward will be solely on unders.
Diving a bit deeper into that, a larger difference has typically shown to be more successful at predicting winners – which is fantastic. The table below tells the story here – whenever we get a large difference between the model and the market for unders, they are a smash play.
Finally, certain leagues have proven more successful to bet on than others. Serie A has been the best performer, with the Premier League and Championship not far behind. However, Bundesliga and La Liga have been less fruitful, – we will have to be cautious there going forward.
To summarise, the criteria going forward will be:
Unders with a difference or 10 or more are the most optimal (6-10 range also decent), with caution on La Liga and Bundesliga games.
The above is all well and good, but there is one more thing to factor in as we approach the end of the season. Deadwood fixtures.
For example, PSG have pretty much wrapped up the league – they are 19 points clear with 8 games remaining. Because of that, we could see rotation or a drop in intensity which could affect the total number of cards.
On the contrary, emotions tend to heighten at this stage of the season, with certain games becoming more important. Think of a relegation six-pointer, or a clash at the top of the league which could have massive implications on the title or European spots – just 6 points separate 4th and 9th in Serie A for example.
In these games, we would potentially expect an increase in bookings, which is something to account for. I do think this period to conclude the season will be a bit more difficult to navigate, but I will embrace the challenge and use it to develop the model for next season.
Planning Ahead
Will continue to share these predictions in the Telegram Group – you can join here.
I also have plans to increase the number of leagues that are covered. Ideally I would like to have bookings predictions for all the games which bet365 offer cards prices. This includes:
- Internationals (South American and European games in particular)
- MLS
- Brazil Serie A
If this can happen, there will be no break periods – predictions will be pumped out during international breaks, during the summer and obviously whenever domestic fixtures are contested. That would be absolutely ideal. But, of course, that would only happen if the quality and quantity of data available is sufficient to produce accurate predictions. That’s why internationals become a bit of a challenge, because the sample set of data will always be small.
Once again, thanks for the continued support on this project!
