4th January Bookings Model Update
First and foremost, happy new year to you all! February 2025 marked the start of tracking returns for the cards code, so we’re almost at a one-year anniversary for the project, which is a personal milestone. Another month of tracking done, and almost an entire calendar year!
December was busy – it didn’t have quite as many predictions as September, October, or November due to some leagues taking the Christmas period off, but it was nevertheless a great one for learning. So, without further ado, let’s start off with the…
Results
A healthy return of 23u, but it’s the 58% win-rate and 15% ROI which I am incredibly chuffed with. Win-rates have been trending upwards in recent months, which is a great sign. A win-rate around the 57%+ mark is optimal – I do expect a slight bit of regression in January because I feel like we were on the right end of a few close calls (for a change!), but I hope we can maintain these kind of numbers. November and December have been positive.
However, there are still some areas of improvement, or things which didn’t quite go to plan. For example, I had 23 0.25u longshots, and not a single one came in! Given how the average odds of these bets are probably around 30/1, that’s not really out of the ordinary, especially given how lucrative these have been since the start of the season. Hopefully we can get at least one of those to land in January – that’s all we really need for the longshots to be profitable. I do think that process can be refined though.
We’re pushing towards the 10% ROI mark now, and that is a marker I am aiming for by the end of 2026.
Now, results aside, there are a couple things to address. First of all, when will I resume with posting predictions.
I mentioned in the previous article a couple of weeks back of the plans to implement a new coding script. That project is fully complete, and was done ahead of schedule. The predictions aren’t radically different, but hopefully a bit more refined. I would like a bit more time just to track how they get along, but I remember setting the initial date of the 25th January as the time to resume posting.
I intend to stick to that.
But it will be slightly different this time. I’m going to prioritise efficiency, so I’ll just be sharing one big screenshot each day (similar to what I do now), but it will include colour-coded games to highlighting where the main value is, and the bet, price, stake and bookie alongside each bet.
One thing I’m trying to get away from, is only betting on highlighted games. I’ve found over the last couple of months that adding a bit of subjectivity can help – I’ve paid a lot of attention to this project over the last 11 months, and have developed better instincts on which games to avoid, and which ones to double down on.
I’ve also got a criteria for specific fixtures to avoid – I’ve been quite meticulous with this. For example, I’ve been keen to ignore Ligue 1 games for unders, while televised Premier League games seem to be lucrative to back.
I’ve got a better system setup for highlighting enticing referee appointments, and for specific teams and matchups. Books have become a lot sharper this season, but I feel like the improvements made to the code has kept up.
Circling back, I’m not exclusively going to target the highlighted games. I might ignore a few where I think the numbers could be misleading. With that being said, I might also pick out bets from games which aren’t highlighted. I’ve found sometimes when a specific set of criteria is met, there is a high chance of a low-cards game, even if the numbers seen to disagree. I stake these accordingly though – ultimately I trust the predictions.
South American leagues have ended, which has been a bit of a relief to be honest! We’ve got past peak volume, and as we start to get towards the end of competitions, volume is only going to get less and less now until summer.
To be honest, I’m not quite sure how I’ve got through the last few months – they’ve flown by in a blur. Feels like I’ve had so much to do, and made a lot of progress, not just on this project, but in all walks of life, and for that I am incredibly grateful.
If you’ve read the whole article and got this far, I massively appreciate your support, and don’t take it for granted. Thanks again, as always, and I’ll catch you all in the next article (probably next month).
