30th January Bookings Model Update
Another month of tracking under the belt, and January has been a good one. As always, I’ll go through the results in this article, and some potential changes going forward.
Results
In January we hit two big milestones:
- 200u profit exceeded
- 4000 games tracked
I’ve got this article out just before February starts, and as it stands we are on track to have the first month of tracking with over 100 units profit.
It’s been a massive project, and I’m grateful it’s got this far – we are over the 1 year mark!
Big Results
I mentioned in the previous article two things – first of all, that we went the entirety of December without winning a single 0.25u longshot – something likes 20+ losses in a row. I also mentioned how I was still confident in these bets, and would persist. I also said something about staking bets even when the cards code doesn’t highlight them as value, as I have come up with a checklist criteria for games to target.
Well, January started with a serious bang – 3 consecutive 0.25u winners, and the third was the biggest win I have ever secured.
44/1 winner, 32/1 winner and then the big boy, 160/1 winner. A ridiculous turn of fortunes.
Barcelona was an example of a game not highlighted as value by the model, but I liked the fixture and it ticked a lot of the boxes for the criteria. Thought it was worth a ladder, and it really paid off.
0.25u longshots have accounted for just over half of January’s profit so far.
As usual after a period of big wins, the last couple weeks have been a lot more modest, a bit of a regression, but the green days have been ticking along, which I’m happy with. We haven’t been able to land a notable longshot, but the win-rate on main lines has been good enough to deliver profit regardless.
That’s a good sign, and that’s been the aim for the last couple of weeks. I have been a bit more selective with longshots, using a bit more subjectivity, meaning a lower total staked.
Posting Bets Resumed
I mentioned the 25th of January as the date for sharing bets to resume, and I’ve been able to stick to that. Things are slightly different this time, with all bets posted in the spreadsheet screenshot as opposed to individual Telegram messages.
This is purely just for efficiency. I think it’s also easier to tail if everything is all in one place. The only difficulty will be with longshots & multiples, but I’ll try make this as clear as possible in the posts. Any questions, give me a shout on Telegram. I don’t check the group too often, but will reply as soon as possible.
Volume Changes
We’ve just gone past the final Champions League group stage game, which means were past the highest volume of fixtures for the season. Cup competitions are coming to the business end, which naturally marks a change – midweek volume is reducing.
However, South American leagues have restarted – Brazil Serie A, Argentinian and Mexican games. These leagues have been a bit hit-and-miss, so I’m going to be a bit wary with them. We’ve got plenty of data, it’s just about learning to use it right. A reduction in European fixtures will hopefully allow me to do so.
So, there might be a few highlighted games without a bet – I’ve not missed it out, I’m just being cautious.
Other than that, there’s no changes to the model. For the next month, It’s just going to be about keeping my head down and tracking games. Building up the database is the most important thing.
As always, I appreciate the support on this project! It’s less of a grind now, more just collecting the data, rather than actively making changes to the model. Lets home these results can continue!
